Football Tips // Friday


Good evening all!

As I type this, it is a beautiful day in sunny Cheltenham! Today’s bets have not kicked off yet, but I am very hopeful on all three bets picked by myself and Jamie for the Europa League.

Tomorrow has a lot of good value about, a little less in the BTTS market in France that I like to take advantage of, and my favourite Dutch 2nd division side, Volendam – are away from home which means one thing – Goals! Here are my four selections for tomorrow:

1. Ath. Bilbao Win @ 11/10 vs Cordoba (NAP) (La Liga, 1945 KO)

Bilbao have won just 2/5 away from home, but have had a couple of tough games. In that they have beaten Celta Vigo, which is no mean feat as most teams, even Atletico Madrid and Barcelona struggle to do so, with Simeone’s men losing 2-0 if I remember rightly. Bilbao have also won 4/5 at home, and usually in these sort of games confidence carries over when playing a team of Cordoba’s level. So – Cordoba…lost 3/5 overall, drawing a couple. At home, even worse – lost 5 in 5 games, conceding 2 per game in either 2-0/2-1 losses. In the only previous meeting this season, Bilbao utterly dominated but somehow lost 1-0. In the current form of both, I don’t see this happening again!

2. Auxerre Win @ 23/20 vs Chateauroux (Ligue 2, 1900 KO)

Auxerre have the best away form in the league, with 3 wins from 5 away games. Overall is the same – 3 wins in 5. Chateauroux’s form is similar Cordoba’s – 5/5 losses overall and 3/5 at home. Last time the two met in November it ended 3-1 to Auxerre. A very good price considering all the factors!

3. Almere-Volendam Over 3.5 Goals @ 6/5 (Dutch Erste, 1900 KO)

Both of these teams are full of goals – in 3 of the last 5 games the scorelines have been 3-2, 3-2 and 3-1. Almere have near 50% record for Over 3.5 Goals, while Volendam is something nearer 70%. Here are the stats:

Volendam: 23 Over, 12 Under (Overall). 14 Over, 3 Under (Away) – 3 Over 3.5’s in their last 5 away games.

Almere: 17 Over, 18 Under (Overall). 8 Over, 9 Under (Home) – 4 Over 3.5’s in their last 5 home games.

Volendam have conceded 6, 7, 3 and 1 recently – so poor at the back. Almere have had a lot of 3-2’s and 2-2’s in recent games. I have been burned a few times recently in this league when doing these sort of bets on the Jong-teams, who are very unpredictable. Volendam still have a chance of promotion, so should be pushing for a big win. Almere still have a lot to play for – with a tiny chance of promotion via the playoff spots, unless the system has changed from the very complicated one it was last season. Volendam have won 4 of the last 5 meets, as well as Almere losing 4 of their last 5 games. This has all the remnants of a goal-fest!

4. Malmo -1 Goal Handicap @ 5/4 vs Falkenbergs (Swedish Allsvenskan, 1800)

Malmo have started the season on fire! Three wins from four games, 2 of which were -1 winners. Falkenbergs have had a mixed start, 2 losses and a win/draw apiece. Both losses have been by -1 or more, and with their previous two fixtures last season ending 3-0 and 5-2, expect goals!

This pays 20/1 – all four are very good bets, the fact I kept changing my mind between Bilbao and Volendam/Almere Over 3.5 for my NAP – but I have gone with my first choice and gut instinct and chosen Bilbao. The double, @ 3.5/1 – is a cracking bet – and my value bet of the day!!

Best of luck!