A very quiet day yesterday, with a few risky bets posted that did not fully pay off, with one DNB voided, the NAP losing and 1/2 on the 11/1 draw double. Today we return to slightly lower value but safer bets – concentrating mainly on England, France and Denmark
1. Metz Win to Nil @ 6/4 vs Nimes (French Ligue 2, 1900 KO – NAP)
This could be seen as slightly risky to have this as the NAP, but here are some stats to put you at ease:
• Metz have kept 3 clean sheets in 4 games at home this season, and 4 in 8 games overall.
• Nimes have failed to score in their last 5 away games (8 of their last 9 going back to last season), and have failed to score in 6/8 games in the 15/16 season.
• Metz are unbeaten – Won 5, drawn 3. Nimes are winless with 4 draws and 4 losses
Win to Nil looks good value @ 6/4 to me, with Metz scoring few, but I’d think they will bag one or two against a poor Nimes outfit.
2. Creteil-Le Havre Over 2.5 Goals @ 6/5 (French Ligue 2, 1900 KO)
These two are among the highest scoring sides in the league – 20 goals in 8 games for Le Havre and 21 in 8 for Creteil. Goals are often hard to come by in France, but this should be different – for these reasons:
• Creteil: Over 2.5 Goals in 4 of their last 5 games, and 5/8 this season
• Le Havre: Over 2.5 Goals in 4/8 games this season, but all four have come away from home, where they play today.
Previous meetings have not been full of goals, but given the form I’m happy with this as a bet due to the stats.
3. QPR-Fulham BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 1/1 (English Championship, 1945 KO)
This has goals written all over it! 27 goals in 8 games this season for QPR, while Fulham have 22 in 7. Here are the figures for both’s BTTS record this season:
• Fulham: 7 BTTS in 7 games, with 5 going Over 2.5 Goals.
• QPR: 5 BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals in their 8 fixtures this season
Both have very good teams, and it will be a battle of the forwards – Ross McCormack vs Charlie Austin. I fancy both to score in this game, and we should have a cracker on our hands!
4. Aalborg Win @ 5/4 vs Viborg (Danish Superliga, 1900 KO)
Aalborg have won the last 4 meetings between the two, with a 4-2 win in June preceded by 2-0, 5-0 and 5-1 wins before that. Viborg have lost 5 games in 9 this season and look set to remain in the bottom 3 teams for the rest of the season, while Aalborg have been on a European adventure that affected their form a little – but 4 wins and a draw in 9 isn’t too bad for them. Over 2.5 was tempting, but with Viborg’s poor record against Aalborg I had to go with the win @ 5/4!
As for the options – I’d fancy 2 doubles again, a French double @ 4.5/1 which could be seen as a little more risky, and then you have the other two games in a 3.5/1 double, with those being slightly safer as a duo I’d think. The accumulator pays in the region of 23.75/1 with Bet365.
Best of luck!