Not a great day yesterday – the NAP voided as it ended 2-2, and the two BTTS + Over 2.5 games ended 1-1, a goal short. Dortmund were missing a lot of players and drew 1-1, but still should have won. Interestingly all four teams/games we picked yesterday ended as draws – wonder what the odds on that was!
Moving onto Friday – value hard to come across but I’ve found four games I like:
1. Banik Ostrava-Sigma Olomouc Over 2.5 Goals @ 23/20 (Czech Synot Liga, 1915 KO – NAP)
This should be a great game. Banik cannot keep a clean sheet but are scoring most games – 6/8 over 2.5 goals this season as well as 3/3 at home and an outstanding record of 15 over 2.5’s in their last 20 games. Sigma have a more average record – 4/8 (and 12 in their last 20), but are doing well and also conceding a few which is why this should be an even game. The last two meets have gone over 2.5, finished 3-2 and 3-3.
2. Borussia M’gladbach II HT-FT @ 13/8 vs Wiedenbach (German Regionalliga West, 1830 KO)
Gladbach’s 2nd string are doing well this season with 6 wins from 11 games – 5 of which were HT-FT wins. They are very high scoring – scoring 16 and conceding 14. Wiedenbach have lost 3 of their last 5 and seem to be conceding a few, while drawing a lot of games too. Last season they won both games, finishing 3-0 and 2-1 to Gladbach. Price is dropping rapidly – was 2/1 when I started writing this.
3. Emmen Win @ 13/8 vs Almere (Dutch Erste Liga, 1900 KO)
Emmen are in good form, sitting 7th in the league. Almere on the other hand are having a mare, losing most games and conceding 3 goals per game on average. Emmen have won 3 of their last 5 meetings and are a team I quite like for goals in the league. If it were available I’d go with Over 1.5 Emmen goals, but this is as good for me and somewhat less risky, though when does any Erste Liga game go under 2.5?
4. Dunkerque Win @ 1/1 vs Epinal (French National Ligue, 1900 KO)
Dunkerque are not in amazing form, but good enough to beat this side – who:
* Have not won @ home since October last year
* W0, D5, L11 – conceding a lot of goals!
Dunkerque also beat them twice last season, both ending 3-1. Great price!!
As an accumulator this pays the best part of 30/1, while my preferred double is 3 + 4 @ 4/1.
Best of luck