In a weird way – I was pleased in the end with just 3/6 on the weekend. The first bet lost, then the next three all won – giving me that horrid feeling of getting 5/6, which for me is far worse than 3/6 as a simple goal from the 30 odd shots in a 1-1 draw between two League One sides would have resulted in a big winner.
But no. Thankfully the final two games were duds – Rosenborg/Sarpsborg playing out an entertaining 1-0 game and to be frank it never looked like winning. Cordoba had about 20 shots against 10-man Lugo but only won 1-0 in the end.
Anyway – moving onto a new week, hoping to repeat last weeks’ biggie. 6 games, couple of value tips of 1/1 or better but overall a 40/1 shot priced with SkyBet (Foggia-Cesena has not yet been priced by a few bookies but most should by this evening when Wattens kicks off).
Here are my 6 in date order. For any newbies – when I say 10/5 for example – I mean over 2.5/under 2.5, to help some unwanted confusion:
1: Wattens vs Kapfenburg: Over 2.5 Goals @ 17/20 (1730 KO, Monday)
A good game to start the week. Wattens have a 9/2 home record for this market, while Kapfenburg have a 7/4 away record. Good overall record between them – 5 of their 6 recent meetings have gone over 2.5 goals.
2: Bradford vs Wigan: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1/1 (1945 KO, Wednesday)
A surprising price at 1/1 – Bradford have 10/6 home record for the market and a 21/13 overall record, including 6 in a row at home. Wigan are lethal at times, especially on the road away from home. They have a 10/5 away record and 3 in a row. Massive potential for a value winner here!
3: Cova da Piedade vs Nacional: Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/10 (1600 KO, Wednesday)
Another value game – Cova don’t have the greatest of records but of late plenty of goals in their games. The big factor for me is they are playing Nacional, who are in effect a top division team but have suffered a relegation. They can and have score 3 or more numerous times, and with their two meetings in the last 12 months ending in 3-2 and 2-1 scorelines – I have confidence.
4: Dynamo Kyiv vs Lazio: Over 2.5 Goals @ 8/11 (1800 KO, Thursday)
I didn’t touch any of last week’s Europa League games, and there were goals! Lazio drew 2-2 with Kyiv – and away from home is where they have the best record – 14/1 in the league, including a weekend winner of 4/5 in a 2-2 draw with Cagliari. Kyiv have dangerous players – so don’t be surprised if this happens!
5: Kiel vs Heidenheim: Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/6 (1730 KO, Friday)
Kiel and Heidenheim are two of the best teams in the Bundesliga II for goals – two of the top three for over 2.5, and their previous meeting this season ended 5-3 to Kiel. Kiel have a 10/3 home record and a 19/7 overall, while Heidenheim have a 6/7 away record and a 15/11 overall. Given the form – struggling to see this staying low in goals.
6: Foggia vs Cesena: Over 2.5 Goals @ 5/6 (1945 KO, Friday)
Another duo of teams in the goals. 44 scored/49 conceded for Foggia, and 43 scored/52 conceded for Cesena, and only 30 games played! Foggia have a 10/4 home record and 20/9 overall, while Cesena have a 10/5 away record and 17/13 overall. Their other game this season ended 3-3!
Best of luck!