After a quiet one yesterday – with precious little on, we return today with an acca for the next two. With there being quite a lot on, it’s trying to pick out the value, and with quite a few games with big favourites it’s hard to come by. After a very poor January, I’m looking to make early inroads into February to make up for it.
I have picked a League Two game for today, so if it gets called off, I will suggest a replacement:
Morecambe vs Portsmouth: Portsmouth Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 5/6 (League Two, 1945 KO)
Portsmouth are in good nick at home, but away are conceding a concerning amount. Throughout this spell though they have been scoring well – 2 or more in 7 of their last 10 away games, including 3 2-2 draws and a 3-2 loss. Morecambe have picked up of late, but have still conceded 50 goals this season! Their 2+ record for conceding is 5 in their last 10, but most of those were 3’s and 4’s. This game ended 3-3 last time, so expect plenty of goals this time!
Leicester vs Liverpool: BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/8 (Premier League, 1945 KO)
This game ended 3-1 to Liverpool last time out in December, but expect a different game. Vardy and Mahrez are fully fit, while Demerai Gray has been added. Neither added anyone late on in the window, but with both scoring well and Liverpool conceding 4 to the likes of Norwich, you’d have to fancy Leicester to bag one, at least. Liverpool equally are scoring well – 5 in that Norwich game but with their defence struggling, and body’s stockpiling in the medical centre they might have to make do with a make-shift back four once again.
If the Pompey game gets called off, replace with Spurs Over 1.5 Team Goals 5/6, or equally add it in for a bigger acca!
Everton vs Newcastle: BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 21/20 (Premier League, 1945 KO)
You might think this will be one sided…and it could be. But Newcastle will be full of spirit after one of their best transfer windows on record. Townsend, Shelvey, Saivet and Doumbia – all good signings and very likely to improve a Newcastle side who have struggled to hit the target. Either with Mitrovic, or on his own – Doumbia has scored goals everywhere and is a natural finisher – he might have struggled in a defence-minded Serie A, but with his electric pace he should do well in the PL. Everton equally have a new front man of their own – Oumar Niasse comes in from Russia with a good record this season but I’m not expecting him to start alongside Lukaku.
Everton – 6 BTTS + Ov 2.5’s in their last 10 home, NUFC – 4/10 away. Slightly risky, but with all the above I think it will happen.
Frosinone vs Bologna: BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 13/10 (Serie A, 1730 KO)
Frosinone look like going down, but are fighting hard! They are very good at home and despite a lot of heavy losses they are scoring goals – 15 scored and 20 conceded in 11 games at home. Bologna are very good away – 5 wins and 5 losses, but 4 of the 5 have come against very weak teams – AC Milan being the other. Not a great record in this market, but both were promoted in the same season and both games ended 2-1 and 2-2, while this seasons meet was a 1-0 win for Bologna.
In their last 7, this has landed 5 times for Frosinone – scoring plenty of 2’s. A win is needed to catch Sampdoria who are on a losing run, and Wednesday is a good chance for that against a hit-and-miss midtable side.
Both doubles pay in the region of 3.3/1 – 3.7/1, while the acca pays 20/1.
Best of luck