Fantastic weekend – although only 6/10 on the Preview after a few teams drew and Southampton went down to 10 men, losing 2-1. On the Acca side – Lazio blew the one, with Salzburg, Monchengladbach and another side winning, while on the other one Southampton blew it, with Rosenborg and Magdeburg winning – the latter an Evens NAP on Sunday, winning 4-0!
Rosenborg + BTTS @ 12/5 was a good pick, as well as Carpi DNB @ 6/5 (21/10 for the win) – but the biggie came late Sunday night in a 17/1 Win + BTTS double (Sparta Prague @ 3/1 + Steaua Bucharest @ 7/2) – the former won 3-2 after going 1-0 down, while the latter was an incredible game, 0-0 at half time, but fan trouble and 20 minutes of added time allowed Dinamo Bucharest to grab the vital goal, and Steaua also added a 3rd to win 3-1!
Onto today – although there is some high-profile action around, we have gone for 4 of the lower league games/small European ones.
1. Shakhtar Donetsk-Volyn Over 3.5 Goals @ 11/8 (Ukranian PL, 1700 KO) NAP
Shakhtar have won away games in their league with a lot of goals recently – 4-1 and 6-1 wins over Zorya and Illychivets give me a good feeling for this one. Last time out against Volyn they won 6-2, while in the previous 5 games including the 6-2 there have been 3 games over 3.5 goals, the others 4-1 and 4-0 to Shakhtar. They are conceding a few recently, as are Volyn, which is nothing new – however Volyn are scoring goals against some of the best sides in the league, a 3-1 loss to Dynamo Kyiv proof of this (2 last time against Shakhtar, as well as a 2-0 last season against the same side).
- Shakhtar – 4 over 3.5’s in their last 5 games, 4 over 3.5’s in their last 5 away games. 9/21 over 3.5’s overall, with a 50/50 record away from home (5 over, 5 under)
- Volyn – 1 over 3.5 in their last 5 games overall (mainly playing similar teams to themselves) and 2/5 over 3.5’s at home
- In the last 5 games – 6-2, 4-1 and 4-0 followed by 2-0 and 2-0
2. Maccabi Tel Aviv + Over 2.5 Goals @ 15/8 vs Maccabi Haifa (Israel TOTO Liga, 1855 KO)
Tel Aviv have been in very good form recently with 3 win + over 2.5’s in their last 5 games, and 3 win + over 2.5’s in their last 4 meetings with Haifa (4 wins from 5 overall). They met last month and it ended 2-1, which is a common score in this game. A good price, could not find win + BTTS but this provides some safety incase of a thrashing.
3. Galatasaray Win + BTTS @ 9/4 (Turkish SPOR Liga, 1800 KO)
Galatasaray are in good form against Akhisar – usually winning and both scoring – this has happened in 3 of the last 5 games, with a 3-0 win thrown in too (4 wins in 5 meets). Akhisar are in decent nick at home, beating three relegation threatened teams, but losing to two upper level teams. Gala are iffy away – but they served us well the other day, and I’m hoping they do so again, thanks to a cracking attack and an weak defence!
4. Lugano Win + Over 2.5 Goals @ 8/5 vs Le Mont (Swiss Challenge League, 1845 KO)
Lugano need to win to keep up/go ahead of Servette in the tense battle for the title and one promotion spot. They have won 5 in a row, and 4/5 away from home, Le Mont are bottom of the table, and in decent form – but have lost the majority of games at home, with 3-0 and 4-0 losses. All of their recent wins have been against teams around them, and with Lugano beating them 3-0 and 3-1 this season, you’d fancy them to win, and win well. Le Mont are a threat though, so rather than HT-FT, I’m going with Win + Over 2.5 goals as I feel Lugano could easily score 3, or squeeze a 2-1 win out.
As an Accumulator, this pays around 60/1, but my suggestion is two smaller doubles:
1. Shakhtar-Volyn Over 3.5 Goals @ 11/8 + Lugano Win + Over 2.5 Goals @ 5.2/1
2. M Tel Aviv Win + Over 2.5 Goals @ 15/8 + Galatasaray Win + BTTS @ 9/4 – 8.5/1
It’s still very early, so these prices have been fetched from a mix of Bet365, William Hill and Paddy Power. All are afternoon/evening KO’s, so expect prices to be added in a few hours time.
Best of luck