Poor day on the football yesterday, with both myself and Jamie’s not going so well – for me Orenburg drew 1-1 in the 8am game, Barakaldo failed to score in a 0-0 draw for the first time this season while Livorno failed to take advantage of 10 man Avellino, before getting a red themselves. Tomsk-Saratov was the only win – Over 2.5 goals @ 11/10.
Outside of football, Jamie managed 3 out of 4 on the Rugby, with Argentina -42 and Ireland -2 (Handicaps) both priced at Evens, with a A/T try-scorer pick in the 8pm Japan-USA game landing inside 10 minutes @ 6/5. Equally Cathal also managed 3/4 on the NFL – with Chicago Bears + 10 @ 8/11 (Won 18-17), Arizona -3 @ 21/20 (his NAP, which won 42-17), New Engand Patriots -8.5 @ 21/20 (Won 30-6) all winning – but New Orleans Saints letting him down, with his + 5.5 handicap coming nowhere near as they lost 39-17. In his 5 fold, 4 won and one lost meaning a refund if you went with Paddy Power.
Today I have picked 4 international games (stay with me, very confident today!) – with 3 handicaps and one Win to Nil:
1. Slovenia -3 Handicap @ 11/10 vs San Marino (1945 KO, Group E – NAP)
San Marino are dreadful – and even after Andorra scored against Belgium to screw us over the other day, I still believe Slovenia – who will want to finish with a bang as they go into the playoffs and after a poor draw with Lithuania – will score a hatful. In their 5 games with the big three in the group, San Marino have lost 7-0 + 4-0 to the Swiss, 7-0 + 5-0 to England and 6-0 to Slovenia.
The pattern is they usually put up a fight for 45-60 minutes, but then the professionals take advantage when the fitness levels drop off a cliff – Switzerland were looking iffy, but ended up 7-0 winners on Friday after 5 goals in the final 25 minutes. With the likes of Krhin, Ilicic, Beric and Lazarevic leading the attack, I can’t see Slovenia not scoring at least four and winning to nil. -3 is terrific value @ 11/10!
2. Slovakia -1 Goal Handicap @ 21/20 vs Luxembourg (1945 KO, Group C)
Slovakia made a shock slip-up to Belarus, at home! With just one game left, the NEED a win here, otherwise an iffy Spain side could drop points to Ukraine, who are a dangerous outfit. Luxembourg are very awful, losing 9 of their last 15 games with 29 conceded in those 9 defeats and 7 defeats of -1 or more, the worst being 5-1 and a few 4-0’s, the majority being around 3-0. I can’t see them making a mistake against Luxembourg, and with a 3-0 win last time – I have great confidence.
3. Switzerland Win to Nil @ 5/4 vs Estonia (1945 KO, Group E)
Switzerland have qualified, but will more than likely give some younger players a chance to shine. The likes of Breel Embolo will start again, and with them looking to confirm themselves are high seeds (Pot 2 possibly) they need every point they can get. Estonia have only scored 4 times in 9 games, and lost all 5 games to nil (out of their 5 losses). They also failed to score against San Marino, which tells a story about their attacking nature. They did threaten against England as they needed the points, but now they are out completely – a Swiss win should be a formality – and a 3-0 reverse meaning the Swiss have scored the most against them in one game. Expect a slow burner, but ultimately a low scoring win to nil should happen.
4. England -1 Goal Handicap @ 23/20 vs Lithuania (1945 KO, Group E)
England won this game easily last time out, a 4-0 result. This time around, both teams have nothing to play for, and with Hodgson resting key players – we will see the likes of Delli Alli, Jamie Vardy, Phil Jones, Jonjo Shelvey as well as Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Kyle Walker and maybe a few more fringe players – one I forgot being Jack Butland, who will stand in pointlessly for Joe Hart (Roy want’s a better look at him, but why against a team who might very rarely enter the half of the keeper, yet alone have a shot or three). These players will want to make a point, and stake a place for a spot next summer. I’d think 2-0 could be the result.
We shall give a mention to Lithuania – a very well earned draw against Slovenia, but mainly heavy losses against the bigger nations in this group. They have earned plenty of points, and could finished as high as fourth. Will be very little threat I’d think, the pitch in Vilnius being the one big question as these smaller foreign countries often have substandard pitches which disrupt the passing of teams like England.
As an accumulator, this will pay roughly 20/1 with Bet365 – if you do not have an account with these then you should find these markets with William Hill or Paddy Power – the rest you may struggle with, but with value hard to come across, it helps to have an account with one of the three above as they offer the greatest variety of markets across all areas of football.
Best of luck