Twas a poor weekend – for us the likes of Juventus, Bristol Rovers, Guimaraes and Valladolid all drew to poorer opposition, with Preston losing. Liege, Marseille, Derby, Burton and Lisbon won. 5/10, with 4 draws and just one loss. On the draw front, Genoa-Fiorentina ended 1-1, but some of the other games were heading that way only for a red card to effect the result. Jamie picked some nice Goalscorer Tips – Cazorla, Matt Smith, Martin, Depay and a few others landing. Here are our thoughts on tomorrow’s games, and an Accumulator to go with:
1. Malaga vs Valencia: Valencia to Score 1st Half @ 5/4
History at home against Malaga is not good. However this season they are much better than the last few. Paco Alcacer is a huge threat, along with several new Argentine imports. Their home form is good, their away form is average. We are expecting them to score in the first half, but not necessarily win the game. Also huge potential for a red card in this one.
2. Jong Twente vs RKC Waalwijk: BTTS 2nd Half @ 7/4
Jong Twente are in fairly good form, drawing a lot of games. RKC are in bad away form, conceding 13 goals in their last 5 games, however they score their fair share. BTTS 2nd half has occurred multiple times in both of these sides last few games, with the vast majority of goals coming 2nd half. Over 1.5 2nd Half isn’t value for me, but we expect a tight first half followed by a very open 2nd.
3. Denizlispor vs Adana Demirspor: Demirspor Win @ 11/10
The last 4 games have all been BTTS between these two, however Demirspor are winning a lot of games to nil, and away from home. With Over 2.5 tempting @ Evens, we have gone with a safer bet, with an expected result of 1/2-0 to Demirspor. At the time of writing this, no other markets are available on William Hill, and even BTTS is not available on most. Should be around the Evens mark, but its risky.
4. Spezia vs Avellino: Draw @ 21/10
These two sit inside the top 8, and both have a heavy record of drawing. Spezia have drawn their last 4 home games, while Avellino have drawn 3 of their last 5 away games, with a couple of 0-0’s. In their last 5 meetings there have been 4 draws – 2 0-0’s and 2 2-2’s. Italian Serie B is renowned for the crazy amount of draws, with many apparently fixed towards the end of the season. I remember several games on the final day last season were under Evens to draw, when usually you will not see anything under 2/1
The price on this is around 40/1 – risky I know, but as you seen on the weekend some of the most likely results went against us. All prices as usual are with William Hill. Prices may vary elsewhere, some of the smaller bookies tend to offer better prices to draw in customers, but overall the more established ones are worth sticking with in my opinion,
Best of luck