3/6 for the midweek selections – Lazio vs Dynamo one goal off, as was Wednesday’s Nacional game, while Wigan-Bradford was 1-0. Friday’s duo both ended 2-1 so a strong end to the week leading into the weekend.
A lot to mull over, a risky selection in there as per usual but an interesting looking 6-Fold that pays around 35/1 with Bet365. The normal spread of football around Europe, from Spain to Slovenia!
One particular game is pure stats but with a horrendous record…but I have a gut feeling and a rule of never changing my mind, so it have stuck with it!
Anyway – here are my 6 games. 1230 start on Saturday the earliest!
1: Altinordu vs Denizlispor: Over 2.5 Goals @ 7/10 (Saturday, 1230 KO)
An early start in the Turkish 2nd tier. Both have around a 50% record overall, but a better than 50% record when it comes to Altinordu at home and Denizlispor away – big deal is that both have a good record of late, and BTTS in the away sides last 6 games. Altinordu also in very good form – winning 8 of their last 10 games – scoring nearly 30 goals and conceding 15.
2: Rudar vs Celje: Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/5 (Saturday, 1400 KO)
Never really realised what a goal fest the Slovenian can be! Celje when away have a 9/2 record, whilst Rudar have a 6/4 home record for over 2.5 goals. Very even teams, good record for the market in question. BTTS nearly always happens and over 2.5 follows closely behind in most cases.
3: Famalicao vs Guimaraes B: Over 2.5 Goals @ 21/20 (Saturday, 1600 KO)
Stats alone were not enough for this one – but the fact Guimaraes B have won + BTTS in 4 of their last 5 away games added weight to it for me. Add in a 10/4 record away from home, and the fact Famalicao are handy at home makes me think the 21/20 is value.
4: Fenerbache vs Galatasaray: Over 2.5 Goals @ 8/11 (Saturday, 1600 KO)
This was the toughie – but I won’t change my mind on this one.
Fenerbache have scored 2 or more goals in every home game since late August! Galatasaray have had over 2.5 goals in every away game since mid-October, and add in Fener with a 10/1 home record for the market, and Gala with 10/2 record away – it looks so good!
The small flaw is no meetings in their last 7 have gone over 2.5 goals. However I think this is different. Big game, Gomis in banging form and both teams missing vital defenders. Guilliano another in great form, Fernandao is back from suspension.
All about the gut feeling!
5: Valladolid vs Almería: Over 2.5 Goals @ 17/20 (Sunday, 1100 KO)
Valladolid are a great team in this market. Could draw 3-3 or win 3-0 on their own. 12/3 home record for over 2.5 goals, and while Almeria have an average record – they have recorded 4 over 2.5 goals in their last 4 away games. Frail at the back, but can score – whilst Valladolid are marching back towards La Liga. Hopefully they will put Almeria to the sword!
6: Vendsyssel vs Frederica: Over 2.5 Goals @ 3/4 (Sunday, 1245 KO)
Randomly came across this match whilst trawling for value. Danish 1st (2nd tier) division, away side have a 15/5 record for over 2.5 and while the home team (I really don’t want to type it again) have a 55% record overall and a 50% home record, the away side are scoring 2+ in nearly every game they play in and often concede the same. Their reverse fixture ended 3-3.
Frederica have 38 goals in 11 away games (23 for, 15 against) while V.. have 22 for and 9 against in 10 games. Should be a few goals at least!
Best of luck