A couple of mixed days – 6/6 on Sunday followed by 0/2 last night (Spartak conceding two goals when they had previously conceded just 3 in 12 home games, against a team who had scored just 4 in 12 away games…).
We have midweek action in England and around Europe. Here are my 4 picks for the next two days:
Brentford vs Leeds: Over 2.5 Goals @ 8/11 (Championship, 1945 KO)
Both of these teams have around a 50/50 record for Over 2.5 Goals so far this season, but it is a recent spate of Brentford games ending in very high scoring fashion that has convinced me on this one. 2-2, 3-3, 4-2, 5-1, 5-3…all in their last 10 home games, as well as a few more! They simply cannot defend, and when you have a lethal Chris Wood on the opposing side, that’s dangerous! Leeds form has been a little poor of late, lots of BTTS and multiple over 2.5’s.
Huddersfield vs Norwich: Over 2.5 Goals @ 19/20 (Championship, 1945 KO )
Norwich are the best side in the league for over 2.5 – 26/39 – roughly 66% have ended that way. Huddersfield on the other hand are about 50/50 – but when playing Norwich there tends to be goals, with their last three meetings in a season and a half being 5-0, 2-2 and 2-1. Huddersfield are handy at home – and playing a Norwich side seemingly incapable of defending, it could be another high scorer!
Swansea vs Spurs: Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/5 (Premier League, 1945 KO)
Swansea, surprisingly – have the best Over 2.5 ratio in the league. in 30 games, they have had 22 over 2.5’s – and under Paul Clement they look a much better side going forward. 7 Over 2.5’s in their last 10, including scoring goals against Liverpool, Chelsea, Man City and Southampton, scoring 2 or more on 4 occasions and conceding 2 or more on 7. Spurs have lost Harry Kane, but are still on a 6 game winning run, still scoring plenty. Their last 5 meets with Swansea have ended 5-0, 3-2, 2-2, 2-1 and 3-1. Weather Swansea score or not, this should still go over 2.5 goals.
Chelsea vs Man City: Over 2.5 Goals @ 8/11 (Premier League, 2000 KO)
This is another game that always produces goals – in the last 5 meets, the scores have been 3-0, 3-0, 5-1, 3-1 and 1-1, and plenty of incidents! Chelsea have been lax at the back of late, losing to Palace at the weekend and then conceding goals to Stoke, West Ham, Swansea and Burnley – teams you’d think they’d shut out like they did earlier in the season. City are somewhat extremely inconsistent – going from looking assured in easy wins, drawing 0-0 with Stoke and Huddersfield to getting battered by Monaco, still winning 5-3, and then getting battered again. Against a quality Chelsea side, it should be another goals galore game!
This bet as an accumulator pays around the 10/1 mark.
Best of luck