I was hoping to find a mix of BTTS and Over 3.5 Goals, but in terms of BTTS value there was very little around – some of the games I found that looked good statistically were only 1/2, or around that price. I promised some people on Twitter that I would never select Ajax again after last weekend, and have stuck to that but have included them in Over 3.5 tips, as that does not rely on them winning!
Here are my four selections for today – which pays 50/1 with William Hill:
1. Derby-Brentford Over 3.5 Goals @ 7/4 (Championship, 1215 KO)
Brentford’s last 4 away games: 2-2, 2-2, 2-3, 1-4. Very high scoring, and even when 2-0 down, they managed to secure a 2-2 draw. This is an early kick off at 1215 in the Championship, so be wary of that! Derby’s home games have had 3 Over 3.5’s in their last 5, with 2-2, 2-2 and 3-2 matches. This should be a cracker!
2. Heracles-Ajax Over 3.5 Goals @ 6/4 (Dutch Eredivisie, 1945 KO)
Ajax have had 2 over 3.5’s in their last 5 away games, while Hercules have had 3 in their last 5 home games, What seals it for me is their previous fixtures when Ajax visit. In their last 5 games there have been 3-3, 2-3 and 4-1 results – and even when it does not quite happen there is usually 3 goals. BTTS has occurred in 5/5 of Ajax’ away games, so expect both to score as well as Over 3.5 goals.
3. Heerenveen-AZ Over 3.5 Goals @ 6/4 (Dutch Eredivisie, 1845 KO)
At home, Heerenveen have had 4 Over 3.5’s in their last 5 games, while away AZ have had 3/5. In their last 5 meets when Heerenveen have been at home – results of 4-2, 4-0, 5-1, 1-0 and 2-0. This should be a high-scoring encounter!
4. Tottenham-Aston Villa Over 3.5 Goals @ 2/1 (Premier League, 1500 KO)
Spurs have been iffy at the back for a few weeks now, and with Hugo Lloris out – they could be vulnerable especially if they start the comedy pairing of Kyle Walker and Vlad Chiriches. In their last 5 home games, there has been an average of 4.4 goals per game, with results of 4-3, 3-2 and and 2-2, as well as two 2-1’s. Villa are very poor defensively, losing 3-1 and 5-0 in the last 5, as well as winning 4-0 against Sunderland (of their last 5 away games). Spurs have won the last 6 meetings – and bar the last, a 2-1 win, all have been by at least -1 goal. Villa drew 3-3 with QPR the other day, with Benteke scoring a hat-trick. Another game that should be full of goals.
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Best of luck