Football Tips // Over-Under Goals Market


Hi all

This is a market I have really picked up on recently, especially games in Holland and England! Today I have picked 6 games with 5 over 3.5 goals tips and 1 over 4.5 goals tip:

1. Chelsea-Man Utd Over 3.5 Goals @ 11/4

Both have been fairly high scorers recently! Chelsea won 3-2 at Hull, while Utd have had plenty of over 3.5 action (the last a 4-2 win over City we picked @ 2/1). There is a bit of needle in this fixture, so I’m expecting cards as well as goals, but hopefully this is remembered for the latter. When playing at Stamford Bridge, Over 3.5 has landed in 4 of the last 5 games!

2. Barcelona-Valencia Over 3.5 Goals @ 11/10

There have been 2 over 3.5 games in the last 3 meetings, while Barcelona have had 3 over 3.5 goals games in their last three fixtures, including a 3-1 win over PSG. Suarez and Messi are really striking a good partnership, while Valencia are doing very well thanks to the likes of Paco Alcacer. Expecting both to score, a possible BTTS Both Halves @ 15/1!

3. PSV-Heerenveen Over 3.5 Goals @ Evens

There have been 3-5 goals in PSV’s last 5 games – with 3 of those going over 3.5 goals. Heerenveen were a good pick last weekend, with a 4-2 win over AZ, with BTTS Both Halves winning for us @ 11/1. Over 3.5 has landed in 3 of their last 5 games. When playing each other, with PSV at home, 3 of the last 5 have gone over – and with Depay on fire as well as Luuk de Jong getting ample supply this could land inside 60 minutes!

4. Sion-Basel Over 3.5 Goals @ 12/5

If you look at Basel’s last 5 games you will see scores of 5-1, 3-1, 6-0, 4-1 and 2-2…good enough for me! Against Sion, this bet would have won in 3 of the last 5 meetings.

5. Watford-Birmingham Over 3.5 Goals @ 6/4

Norwich slipped up to Middlesbrough last night, so Watford have a chance to put a gap between them! They are scoring a lot of goals recently, but the main thing in this one is Birmigham’s poor away record. In their last 5 away games, their form reads 2-4, 0-2, 2-2, 2-4, 3-4. 25 goals in 5 games, an average of 5 per game!

6. Salzburg-Neustadt Over 4.5 Goals @ 7/4

Over 3.5 was only 8/13, and for good reason. Bar a 2-0 win last time out – the previous 4 meetings read as such – wins of 4-1, 5-0, 5-0 and 5-1. In their last few games there have been between 4 and 7 goals, and with Neustadt being so poor in this league, expect a cricket score!


If I were to pick a good value bet, I would struggle. These are difficult to separate! The one I am most sure on is Watford-Birmingham @ 6/4, while the two highest prices of Man Utd-Chelsea + Sion-Basel form a 12/1 double. My 4 fold Accumulator would be:

  • Watford-Birmingham @ 6/4
  • Barcelona-Valencia @ 11/10
  • Salzburg-Neustadt @ 7/4
  • Sion-Basel @ 12/5

That in itself is 50/1! Last Sunday I picked a 7.5/1 double in Salzburg-Vienna and Man Utd-Man City, and those were both in on or around 2/1…

A BTTS Both Halves bet I quite like is Man Utd-Chelsea @ 18/1 and Barcelona-Valencia @ 12/1 = 246/1 double with SkyBet!

Best of luck!