It’s been a little while since I have sent any tips in to the chaps here – some rough times, but I’m back now with a duo of Premier League tips:
Arsenal vs Hull: Arsenal Win to Nil @ 11/10 (12:30 KO, Premier League)
Arsenal have fallen on rough times and it’s all drastically wrong because they’ve ‘fallen out of the title race’ – it’s easy to get carried away and I’m not going to get caught in any managerial debates but the bottom line is they were out of it anyway. Logically thinking allowing a side like Chelsea the stretch they’ve had for some time now has ended the statistical side of the debate. It’s not impossible for Spurs, Arsenal or any of the chasing pack to catch them but it would take a colossal – almost Van Gaal style balls up in order for it to happen.
Throw in the fact Hull have turned into Yorkshire’s answer to 2002 Brazil under Marco Silva and I imagine the chaps over at Arsenal fan tv will already be preparing rants on a scale of ‘vintage’ Kanye. With all this madness though from a betting POV it’s important to keep a statistical mindset and the key stats for me are as follows; Hull have failed to score in seven of their last eight away matches, Arsenal are unbeaten in 13 of the last head to head matches with Hull, Arsenal sit fourth in the ‘defensive rating’ table for home matches whilst Hull sit sixteenth on attacking ability when playing away. Arsenal have kept four clean sheets at home in 12 matches whilst Hull have failed to score in seven away matches scoring only six goals in a total 12 away matches, losing 9.
As I said it’s easy for recent events to blur predictability but Arsenal still need to insure a top four finish and these are the matches they cannot afford to drop points in, Hull have had a decent run of form but historically do not perform offensively away from home.
Liverpool vs Tottenham: BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 6/5 (17:30 KO, Premier League)
Interesting clash here, 5th vs 2nd – early season form under Klopp will always make Liverpool a hypothetically difficult opponent – although they are without a league win since December. Shouldn’t be any major selection surprises in this one: Spurs are still without Vertonghen and Rose and the only decision Klopp has to make is Mignolet or Karius (Trump vs Clinton springs to mind). Tottenham are undoubtedly strong but Anfield has historically been a tough place for them; failing to win in the last five at Anfield with Liverpool taking four wins.
Interestingly four of these matches have finished BTTS and the same amount finishing Over 2.5 Goals. For their poor run of form Liverpool have only failed to score once at home this term in a 0-0 draw win Man United, whilst Spurs have failed three times away against; Man United, Bournemouth and Sunderland. Although Spurs have drawn a blank on three occasions you do have to factor in their strong season-long form and Liverpool’s defensive frailties.
This in a double pays just over 3.5/1
Best of luck!