With a total of 4 winners in 7 Premier League games last week, I am a little disappointed. However, in the main accumulator both of the losing games were a goal off with Everton/Watford failing to find the all important 3rd goal, while Man City only managed 2 and not 3 goals against WBA, probably thanks to their involvement in the Champions League meaning the likes of De Bruyne were rested.
This weekend the games that I see good value in are spread about, so the four tips are spread across Saturday and Sunday. There are plenty of close games that look hard to call, including WBA vs Watford, Leicester vs West Ham and Chelsea vs Man City. There is the odd mis-match, with Man Utd @ 1/5 vs Aston Villa – those sort of games are hard to find value in as you’d have to handicap them in most markets to get a decent price.
I have gone with a mix of markets, with four different markets:
Chelsea vs Man City: Man City -1 Corner Handicap @ 11/8 (1730 KO, Saturday) – NAP
With the Champions League out of the way for a week or so now, full attention should turn back to the league, and Man City have far from confirmed their place in next season’s top European competition.
I have gone with corners on this one, for good reason. There have been varied results between the two, but discounting the 5-1 loss in the FA Cup (City played a poor team) the previous three corner scorelines have been 5-1, 8-1 and 14-2 to City. They apply a lot of pressure going forward and get a lot of corners. 11/8 to win by just one looks a great bet, and with Chelsea a little slow at the back I can see the City wingers having fun on Saturday evening!
Newcastle vs Swansea: Swansea Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2/1 (1500 KO, Saturday)
This looks another dooming day for Newcastle. Once again, a lack of defenders with Janmaat injured, Coloccini potentially not fully fit and Steven Taylor likely to never be seen in the shirt again (about 10 years too late!). Swansea have been solid of late, taking good points off bigger teams above them. They have a good record against Newcastle – Win + BTTS @ 11/2 a tempter but I’ve decided to stick with better value/less risk. It’s ended 2-2 before, but the way Newcastle are defending, 2 goals @ 2/1 is amazing value!
At odds of 13/10, and clear favourites – I’m not sure what the bookies are on. Benitez seems resigned to relegation already, and with a top heavy team of decent attackers and poor defenders, I think it’s the latter that will write the headlines on Sunday morning. Ayew and co to run riot among a thrown-together back four.
Arsenal vs Crystal Palace: Arsenal Win + BTTS @ 2/1 (1600 KO, Sunday)
This is a fairly high priced bet to include in an accumulator, but the last three games have all ended 2-1 to Arsenal.
The thing I’ve found with Arsenal over the years is that they perform at their best once every trophy is off the table. Champions League, Premier League and FA Cup – all gone for another season and once that happened, they whopped Watford 4-0. Sanchez is looking back to his best, Welbeck dangerous, Ozil has shown up again but they still conceded 3 to West Ham last weekend, which shows considerable weakness. Petr Cech might well be reinstated now fully fit as David Ospina oozes as much confidence as the Newcastle back four.
Palace have found the next regularly of late, with 2-2 draws against a few teams as well as a 3-2 loss to WBA. They have scored in 7 of their last 10 away games, while conceding in 9/10. This however is the perfect type of Pardew game. At Newcastle, his teams were often useless against the teams they should have been taking points against, and then performed versus those who they were expected to lose to.
Bournemouth vs Liverpool: BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 5/4 (1330 KO, Sunday)
After the amazing win on Thursday night, this would be the typical game for them to lose. Not saying they will, but with their back four performing defensively like they are, I can’t help but see Bournemouth scoring.
The home side are hit and miss, either winning and winning well – or taking a battering. They have scored 20 and conceded 26 in 16 home games (average of so nearly 3 per game) while Liverpool actually score more away from home than at home (same goes for conceding) – with 26 scored and 23 conceded in 16 games. Offensively they now look brilliant, with Coutinho, Sturridge, Origi and Firmino all fit. There are still questions about their back four – when you concede 4 to Norwich and 2 Exeter you have to worry.
Both have varying degree’s of success when it comes to this market – but I feel this will be a high scoring game where both will fancy their chances!
NAP: Man City -1 Corner @ 11/8
Double: Swansea Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2/1 + Arsenal Win + BTTS @ 2/1 = 8/1
Accumulator: All Four @ 47/1
Best of luck