With the International break over, we return to the land of the interesting football! With probably the most fascinating title race in years, and it being the league I know best – it seems the logical set of games to bet on. Usually I pick a bet per game, but since at the end I only pick four in the accumulator, I figured it best to cut to the chase and show my hand, analysing only the four I intend to back.
There are a lot of tempting prices about – West Ham are slight odds-on favourites against Palace – Over 1.5 Team Goals is around 1/1, but they are rather good at 1-0 wins, as well as the odd 0-0 draw. Stoke vs Swansea and Sunderland vs WBA look like massive ‘no bets’ – could go either way and could be either low or high scoring. Both Sunday games are also looking like ones that will be similar, though Everton or Draw @ 1/1 looks good value. Anyway – my four preferred games to bet on for today:
Aston Villa vs Chelsea: Chelsea -1 Goal Handicap @ 6/4 (1245 KO)
Villa have got rid of Remi Garde, but the problems within the club won’t go now the Frenchman has. Gabby Agbonlahor has been suspended after being snapped smoking a shisha-pipe. Their back four look dreadful, while going forward they are nearly as bad. Flimsy is the best word for them…
Chelsea on the other hand have been very good under Hiddink so far, and of late very good away from home – 4 wins in their last 5, including games at Arsenal, Southampton and Palace. Without Costa, they are more of a football team. Pato or Falcao could start since Remy and Costa are missing, and with Willian, Fabregas and the youngster Bertrand Traore looking decent – I think the Blues will rack up another win.
Norwich vs Newcastle: BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 7/5 (1500 KO)
Both of these need the points here. Benitez’ side are starting to fall adrift from the rest, and should they lose this could be as many as 6-7 points from safety, which is not going to be easy to overturn! This game ended 6-2 to Newcastle last time out, which could still be in the memory of Norwich’ players and with a world-class manager now in charge it should make it an interesting game!
I’m certain there will be goals. Norwich have lost a lot of their recent home games, including 5-4 and 2-1 as well as a 2-2 draw. Newcastle are awful away, but with the new manager effect, that could make a huge difference. I can’t see either keeping a clean sheet, and with some real class players on display – it all points to another game similar their last!
Liverpool vs Tottenham: BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 6/5 (1730 KO)
This is one that Kieron agreed with to a point that he included this as one of his tips (just the BTTS) – first game back after the internationals and teams are often a little rusty. Spurs have conceded in 4 of their last 5 away games, while Liverpool can blow teams away on a good day, but equally concede silly goals more often than not. Kane, Eriksen, Firmino, Origi, Alli and more on the pitch – should be a good game! The last 5 meetings have ended 0-0, 3-2, 3-0, 4-0 and 5-0. All wins for Liverpool, but Spurs have drastically improved under Poch and I expect a much more even game.
Bournemouth vs Man City: Man City Win + Over 2.5 Goals @ 2/1 (1500 KO)
City are very hit and miss – brilliant one week, awful the next. Bournemouth have been good of late, winning so many games that they are now effectively safe. Their last meeting ended 5-1 to Man City – but at home, Bournemouth are average at best – losing 4 of their last 7. I believe City, even without a few key players, will blow them away and win easily. They might well concede, but I can see them scoring at least three. This is the most risky of the four, but a great price. 23/20 is the price for just the win, and is great value as well.
As an accumulator, this pays 38/1! My preferred double however is Chelsea -1 @ 6/4 and Newcastle-Norwich BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 7/5 in a 5/1 bet.
Best of luck