An excellent weekend of football lies ahead, as well as the Rugby as well – Saturday night is going to be very tense – a loss to Wales for me would be demoralising!
4 tips today from me – picked from my weekend preview:
1. Chelsea -1 Goal Handicap @ 8/5 vs Newcastle (Premier League, 1730 KO)
Chelsea are starting to gain a little form – despite the ban for Diego Costa they are looking much sharper and are getting the winning feeling back! They face a Newcastle team devoid of confidence having been beaten twice at home inside a week to Watford and a 2nd string Sheff Wednesday side. They have many players with good qualities but none who have the fight to earn them their first league win of the season.
Newcastle always seem to be a bogey side for the Londoners , with 3 wins in the last 5 games. But this time I think the pace of Hazard, Pedro, Remy and Willian (if played) will be too much for a makeshift back four that could include Mike Williamson as Massadio Haidara is injured, with Chancel Mbemba moving across to left back. Daryl Janmaat also has a torrid time against pacey players, already being sent off once this season.
2. Lincoln-Torquay BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/10 (National League, 1500 KO – NAP)
These two are among, if not – the top scorers in the league. Torquay have a total of 44 goals scored and conceded in just 12 games – nearly an average of 4 per game. Lincoln are nearer 3 goals per game with 35 in 12. Here are the key stats:
• Lincoln – BTTS in 9/12 games, with + Over 2.5 coming in 4/12. BTTS in 6/6 at home
• Torquay – BTTS in 9/12 games, with + Over 2.5 coming in 7/12. BTTS + Overs in 5/6 away
Despite Lincoln’s tendancy to draw 1-1, looking at the back four of Torquay fills me with confidence as they have conceded as many as 7 at times this season to newly promoted teams! A solid bet!
3. Celta Vigo Win @ 11/10 vs Eibar (Spanish La Liga, 2105 KO)
Vigo have started the season like a house on fire! Beating Barcelona 4-1 a few days ago and winning 4 games out of 5, drawing the other. Eibar have had an easy-ish start, picking up 2 wins and a couple of draws. They lost 2-0 to At Madrid last time out, and I feel will start to slide down the table once bigger and better opponents take the 3 points. Last time out in April, Vigo ran out 1-0 winners. A good omen? Maybe…
4. Malmo -1 Goal Handicap @ 11/10 vs Halmstad (Swedish Allsvenskan, 1500 KO)
Malmo have been on our list for a while (the bad one…) so for them to come off it must be exceptional value. They have beaten Halmstad in 4 of the last 5 meetings overall and 5/5 away from home, with most of them coming at -1 goal handicap. Their form has improved recently, so I’m happy to take a chance on them again given the facts and figures. Halmstad are 10 points from safety with 5 games remaining – while Malmo are 4th and within a few wins of the top three – so both have motivation to win the game, but I feel Malmo will have too much.
I’m slightly apprehensive on Chelsea – I backed a similar thing last time they played at St James’ Park and Newcastle went and done them over – would be typical for them to be playing so badly but beating Chelsea. Still think there is a 90% chance that will win, but the NAP is the BTTS + Overs game due to the overwhelming statistical evidence!
1. Double: 1 + 4 @ 4.5/1
2. Acca: 1-4 @ 24/1
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Best of luck