Football Tips // Saturday

7

Evening all

After a fairly quiet week, domestic football returns and we have selected 4 games for tomorrow. All are even priced or above, and with other tipsters concentrating on the European leagues I have looked mainly at England, and the lower divisions where value seems to be very high.

Here are my 4 picks:

1. Bury-Rochdale BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/10 (League One, 1500 KO)

Statistically Bury have been a good bet all season, with 8 BTTS + Over 2.5 goals in 12 league games, and 11 in 16 overall. They have scored in 15 of their 16 games, and conceded in 13/16 – so both weak at the back and strong going forward. 5 of their 8 home games have ended BTTS + Over 2.5, with 12 games in total being just BTTS.

Rochdale’s record in this market has not been great so far this season, with around 50% of games landing. However recently t has turned around, with 6 BTTS + Over 2.5’s in a row. They have scored in 12/15 games, and conceded in 11/15. The last meeting between the two last summer ended 3-3, but that will probably have little bearing on this match.

2. Exeter-Carlisle BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 21/20 (League Two, 1500 KO – NAP)

These two are among, if not – the highest goal-scorers and conceders in the game. Carlisle have scored and conceded 22 apiece, while Exeter have scored/conceded 19 apiece. Both average at least 3 goals per game, and have good records in this market.

Exeter have BTTS + Over 2.5 in 8/16 games this season, but 6 of those have come in their 9 away games, and scored in 12/16, while also conceding in 12/16. Carlisle have BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals in 8/12 league games and 11/16 in all competitions – and 5 in 7 home games! They have scored in 14/16, and conceded in 16/16. Excellent price!!

3. Woking-Wrexham BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 23/20 (National League, 1500 KO)

Wrexham – 12 BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals in 17 games, with 6/8 away from home. Scored in 16/17 games, conceding in 13/17
Woking – 7 BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals in 16 games, with 4/8 at home – Scored in 7/8 home games, conceding in 5/8.

This bet would have landed in 3 of the last 5 meetings.

4. Crewe-Gillingham BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 21/20 (League One, 1500 KO)

This is an interesting one. You’d think Gillingham will dispose of Crewe no problems – and probably will, but consider these stats:

Crewe – 9 BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals in 14 games, with 7/8 at home. They lost 6 of those 8, and drew others 0-0 and 3-3. The rest have been 2/3-1 losses. They have scored in 11/14 and conceded in 12/14.

Gillingham – 8 BTTS + Over 2.5 goals in 15 games, but 6 in the last 8 and 4 in 8 games away from home. They have scored in 13/15 games and conceded in 12/15. In the last 3 meetings, there have been two 3-1’s, giving me great confidence.

The acca pays around 19/1 with Bet365, with my preferred double being the top two @ 3.5/1.

Best of luck!

Will