Football Tips // Saturday

5

Evening all

So far today we have a 100% record – HJK-KUPS BTTS @ 13/8 landed, and for those of you who don’t know a great deal bout BTTS bets – anything at that price is amazing value, as HJK had kept 5 CS’s in a row at home. Tomorrow is the penultimate day of regular season tipping, with the quality of football dropping off a cliff after Sunday – most leagues are over with the Copa America and Euro Under 21’s taking place from the 11th-30th June.

Just four picks today – here’s my analysis of the four:

1. Arsenal-Aston Villa Under 3.5 Cards @ 11/10 (NAP) (FA Cup, 1730 KO)

These two are very much about playing football. No nastiness when losing, simply trying to get back into it, which is why it should be a good final. Here’s the stats on the two sides:

Bookings in last 10 games:

Arsenal: 8 (0.8 per game)

Aston Villa: 13 (1.3 per game)

Arsenal had had 8 bookings in their last 10 games, and 4 of those came against Chelsea. They picked up either 0 or 1 booking in 9 of those 10 games, with Hector Bellerin getting two of those, and even one came in extra time against Reading! Aston Villa did something similar, with 4 bookings in one game, and bar that either 0, 1 or 2 in the rest of the 9 games. Bar one ill-tempered game a few years ago, the last 5 meets have had between 2 and 4 bookings, the one game in question had 10.

2. Zaglebie Win @ 11/10 vs Legnica (Polish 1st Division, 1500 KO)

Zaglebie need a point or two from the final two games to secure a return to the Ekstraklasa, and with 8 wins and 2 draws in their last 10 away games, 11/10 is incredible value. They face a Legnica side with nothing to play for and have lost 4 games in their last 10 overall, winning just three.

3. Zawisza-Belchatow Over 2.5 Goals @ Evens (Polis Ekstraklasa, 1700 KO)

In this relegation stage, against fellow sides in this section – Zawisza have an over 2.5 goal record of 12 Over, 6 Under overall. When away, their record reads 8 over, 1 under!! Belchatow struggle for goals a bit more, with a 7 over/11 under record, with 2 over/6 under at home. However, the last two meetings this season between the two have both been BTTS, and both gone over, with Zawisza winning 2-1 and 4-1.

4. CSKA Moscow HT-FT @ 13/10 vs Rostov (Russian Premier League, 1130 KO)

This is a very early KO in the final round of fixtures – and there is everything to play for on both sides! CSKA are level on points with 3rd place Spartak, and should they lose 2nd, they will not be in the Champions League qualifying rounds, which will be a catastrophe for them. They face Rostov, who currently occupy the last relegation place which would mean they have a playoff against a 2nd division side to stay in the league. Here are some stats:

  • In CSKA’s 19 wins, 15 have been HT-FT, including their last 4 games.
  • in Rostov 15 losses this season, 11 have been HT-FT

In their 2 meetings this season, CSKA won 6-0 and 3-1.

Variations:

As we do normally – this is where we suggested doubles and trebles, as well as the Accumulator as some like to do several different bets to cover the four games.

1. NAP – 11/10

2. Double – 1 + 2@ 3.5/1

3. Treble – 1, 2 + 3 @ 8/1

4. Accumulator – All four @ 20/1

Best of luck for the day!

Will