Yet another cracker yesterday! 7 winning tips from 8, which should have been 8 had Norwich not got a red card and blown a 1 goal lead with moments to go. All 4 tips @ Evens or above landed, two of the four scored 4 goals! 18/1 Acca is still on and reliant on Juventus…so hopefully that will pull through today.
Having looked at the fixtures – nothing much about but I have found four bets that I very much like:
1. Duisburg Win @ 6/4 vs Dresden (NAP) – (Bundesliga 3, 1300 KO)
Duisburg have won 4 of their last 5 games in the league, and 2/5 away with some tough opposition. Dresden have lost 4/5 overall, and 4/5 at home – conceding a worrying amount of goals. Duisburg are fighting with Stuttgart Kickers at the moment for 3rd, and going after Kiel in 2nd – so a win here is vital!
2. Monchengladbach-Wolfsburg Over 3.5 Goals @ 2/1 (Bundesliga, 1630 KO)
These two are among the top sides in the Bundesliga at the moment, both in fantastic form! Gladbach have beaten Bayern recently, and Wolfsburg are a little iffy away from home, and can struggle after Europa League commitments. Three of the last 5 meets have gone over 3.5 goals, while in the league this season Gladbach have 45% of their home games go over 3.5, while Wolfsburg have 45% of their away games go over 3.5 – so statistically about a 50/50 chance, which for this amount of goals is pretty good given the price!
3. Real Madrid Win + BTTS @ 2/1 vs Celta Vigo (La Liga, 2000 KO)
Vigo are a very good team – coached last season by Barcelona coach Luis Enrique. They have beaten some of the top teams this season – a 2-0 win over Atletico one that sticks in the memory. They beat Real 2-0 last season, while 3 of the last 5 away games for Real vs Celta have ended 2-1, and with it being likely that Modric, Marcelo, Bale and Benzema may not be fully fit/even starting – it could be a very even game. BTTS is poor value @ 1/2, so the bookies are clearly expecting Vigo to score – and Real are 4/7 to win – so 2/1 for Win + BTTS makes little sense. A very good price!
4. Juventus -1 Corner Handicap @ 13/10 vs Torino (Serie A, 1400 KO)
Juve and Torino are massive rivals – but Juve almost always win. 5/5 away, and 5/5 overall. Corner wise – both are iffy. Some games they have more than opponents, others they don’t. But with Juve usually dominant in this fixture – and the corresponding 4/5 games – they always have 2-6 more corners than Torino, who are more counter attacking in this game. -1 Corner handicap would/did land in all of the last 5 meetings.
Now – the last two Sunday I’ve had nice winning doubles – 12.5/1 and 7.5/1, so my double this Sunday is Real Madrid + BTTS @ 2/1 and M’gladbach-Wolfsburg Over 3.5 Goals @ 2/1 which makes a nice looking 8/1!
You may add the other two for around 50/1 as an Accumulator. My NAP yesterday did not win – just the 2nd loss in 6 this week. Very hopeful of making it 5/7 for the week with Duisburg today. We had a nice winner in that league yesterday with Bielefeld winning 4-0 against Erfurt, who have similar form to Dresden.
Best of luck for the day! Let’s hope Juve show up and do the business against Torino and give us an 18/1 winner to end a great week!