Today was a 50/50 one – 2 right and 2 wrong. The two incorrect selections were both just a goal off, one of which was the NAP unfortunately, ending a run of 7 consecutive correct NAP’s. The two correct ones were Leverkusen -1 Goal @ Evens and Luzern Win @ 11/10.
Tomorrow looks pretty good – the 5 games in my Preview on Friday for today have all maintained at the same price, but I was stumped for the NAP – so I have adjusted one slightly as I have come across some statistics that make it a more likely result. Here are my four picks for the day:
1. AZ Alkmaar-Excelsior Over 10.5 Corners @ Evens (Eredivisie, 1330 KO) (NAP)
Originally I had gone with the win for AZ @ Evens, but the odds have gone from Evens to around 17/20 – but then I came across the corners statistics. So…
- In AZ’s last 10 games overall, only twice have there not been more than 10 corners. The two occasions there have not, there has been 9 and 10 – so very close!
- In AZ’s last 10 away games, 6 over 10, 4 under 10 – but the 4 that stayed under were either one or two off.
- In Excelsior’s last 10 games, all but 3 have stayed under 10, but again – all have been very close, between 8 and 10 in all!
AZ will be desperate to win as they will want the automatic route to the Europa League rather than going through a playoff for the one spot. Excelsior have a habit of spoiling the party, having scored goals against a few of the top teams. They often outscore opponents on corners, having 7 vs PSV to their 2! AZ have got 10 or more on their own in some games this season, and several of the last 10.
2. HJK Helsinki -1 Goal Handicap @ 7/5 vs VPS Vaasa (Finnish Veikkausliiga, 1600 KO)
HJK have won 5 out of 8 so far this season while VPS have lost 6/6. They have won 3 of the last 5 meetings, 2 of those by -1 Goal. 7/5 a cracking price! Not a lot more to say on this one! HT-FT was tempting, but usually they are level at HT and crack on 2nd half – in 4 of their 5 wins they have been level at HT. Win to Nil was also tempting, but they have conceded in all three away games so far this season.
3. Fenerbache Win + BTTS @ 17/10 vs Mersin (Turkish Super Lig, 1800 KO)
Fenerbache have won 7/10 games away from home, 6 of those Win + BTTS. They seem to have such a poor defence, but enough up top to outscore their opponents. Mersin have lost 3 of their last 5 home games – so not in the best of form. Fener have won all 7 meetings between the two, with 5 win + BTTS in those games!
4. Brondby Win to Nil @ 29/20 vs Silkeborg (Danish Superliga, 1600 KO)
Brondby have won 3/5 games both overall and away from home, with all to nil. In the last 5 meetings, they have won 4 of those and three of those to nil. Silkeborg are pretty much relegated, so will be a little despondent possibly. They have lost 4/5 games overall and 3/5 at home, so very poor form and the reason they will go down this summer.
These are my preferred double and treble – depending on how you intend to bet and how much:
1. AZ-Excelsior Over 10.5 Corners @ Evens + Brondby Win to Nil @ 29/20 – 4/1
2. Add Fenerbache Win + BTTS @ 17/10 for 12/1
3. Accumulator – 30/1
Best of luck,