The NAP was the only bet to land yesterday (Santos 2-2 Ponte Preta, Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/10), as well as a correct score pick from my Champions League Preview + Tips (3-1 @ 15/2) – with a red card for Bahia ruining that game and San Lorenzo missing a hat-full of chances against Belgrano, who missed a penalty…so swings and roundabouts!
Today looks fantastic! Not many games on, but loads of value in Sweden and Norway, as well as games in Poland and Finland. Here are my four picks for today:
1. IFK Goteborg Win @ 11/10 vs Hammarby (Swedish Allsvenskan, 1400 KO) (NAP)
Goteborg have won 9/12 games so far, with 4 wins from 5 away from home. In those 12 games, just 5 conceded. Hammarby on the other hand started well but have dropped recently with no win in 7 games (3 draws, 4 losses). Although they have not met for 6 years, Goteborg always had the upper hand, winning 4 of the last 5 meetings.
2. Sogndal Win @ 11/10 vs Follo (Norwegian OBOS-Ligaen, 1700 KO)
Sogndal, like Goteborg, have started the season on fire. 8 wins from 11 games, and 5 in a row should give them great confidence going into this game. In those 5 wins in a row, 10 scored, 1 conceded. Looking at Follo, they have conceded 9 in their last 5, and one of those 5 was a clean sheet – 2 on 3 occasions and 3 once. Because of that, 1 wins in 5 overall, and 2 in 5 at home, which is pretty poor by anyone’s standards!
3. HJK Helsinki Win + BTTS @ 15/4 vs Lahti (Finnish Veikkausliiga, 1200 KO)
HJK have been in ominous form at home, with many wins to nil. However, away from home they are very vulnerable, conceding in 5 away games in row. Lahti have scored in 4 home games in a row, putting together some decent form. HJK have won + BTTS in 2 of their last 3 games, with BTTS in all three games. Overall, 5 wins in their last 7 games, with BTTS landing in 4 of those. Lahti have lost + BTTS in 2 of their last 5 games too. In terms of previous meets, mainly HJK wins, with a couple + BTTS in recent games.
4. Jagiellonia Win + BTTS @ 7/2 vs Lechia Gdansk (Polish Ekstraklasa, 1700 KO)
Jagiellonia are in crazily good form at home. 5 wins in their last 7, with 4 of those being wins + BTTS. Gdansk are poor away from home, with 4 losses in their last 6 away games, 2 of which were losses + BTTS. Lechia have nothing to play for, while Jagiellonia could still win the title mathematically.
Due to the price – I’ve picked two doubles – and if you fancy a flutter, the accumulator:
1. NAP: Goteborg Win @ 11/10
2. Double 1: 1 + 2 @ 3.4/1
3. Double 2: 3 + 4 @ 20.5/1
4. Accumulator: All Four @ 95/1
To begin with today I thought they only decent football available was south america – but as I searched I found these games, which made this post four times as long! Fantastic value here today, and I do like a good Win + BTTS bet, with 12.5/1, 15/1 and 17.5/1 doubles landed inside the last month, with over 75% of the picks in this market winning at odds over 2/1 or greater.
Best of luck!