Back down to earth with a bump after several great days – with my tips there was just one out of four, with the Czech BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals game flying in with the score ending 4-3 to Mlada Boleslav. Forest Green went 1-0 up within minutes but with a red card eventually lost 4-1 in only their 2nd loss of the season. Gillingham also lost for the first time in 8, going down 2-1 to Gillingham. Real Madrid somehow managed just one against Granada which topped a pretty disappointing day for me.
Better luck from the rest – Jamie picked a 15/8 winner on the Ireland-Canada game, while Braden picked out a 20/1 corker on the racing, as well as a few others wins at lower prices. Kieron managed 3 out of 4 on the BTTS, with one Villa goal separating him from a 16/1 tipped win.
Moving onto today – odds have shifted on my selected preview games, and with no value to be found on the Win + BTTS that I like to do on a Sunday, I have instead opted for a BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals acca, with the option of an additional two Over 2.5 goals games from Poland that look cracking value. I was tempted to post all 10 I picked out – but with a little extra research I cut out four as I was not 100% on them like I am with these 6. The first four are all between 1330 and 1400 KO’s, with the latter two Polish games being 4pm and 6pm KO’s.
Anyway – here are my tips:
‘At a Glance’
1. Gefle-Helsingborg BTTS + Over 2.5 @ 6/5
2. Sampdoria-Torino BTTS + Over 2.5 @ 7/5
3. Tottenham-Palace BTTS + Over 2.5 @ 13/10
4. Slovan Bratislava-Trencin BTTS + Over 2.5 @ 11/10
5. Chajniczanka-Zabki Over 2.5 @ 23/20
6. Bytow-Zawisza Over 2.5 @ 21/20
1. Gefle-Helsingborg BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 6/4 (Swedish Allsvenskan, 1400 KO – NAP)
Both average nearly 3 goals per game this season (62 in 23 for Gefle, 65 in 23 for Helsingborg – that’s overall goals, not just scored by the way…) 4 of the last 5 meetings both overall and at the Gefle ground have ended BTTS + Over 2.5, with plenty of 2-1’s and the odd 2-2, 3-1 and 5-1 result – a mix of wins for both sides. They are very close together in the league, just 2 places and a few points between them.
Gefle have had 3 BTTS + Overs in their last 5 home games, while Helsingborg’s last 5 have all had a lot of goals and this bet would have landed in all 5. The Swedish league – a lot like the other Scandinavian leagues, is full of goals and to find a price like this with statistics like these is rare. Every Norwegian game today, for this market – has odds of under 1/1 for every game, with worse stats. Just saying!
2. Sampdoria-Torino BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 7/5 (Italian Serie A, 1400 KO)
I’ll keep this one short and sweet – scores of 5-1, 2-0, 2-0 and 2-2 in their last four meetings and this season both have had the following results:
Torino: 2-1, 5-1, 2-2, 4-1
Sampdoria: 2-2, 5-2, 2-0, 2-2 + 2-1
Both defensively weak, conceding in pretty much most if not all games so far this season including friendlies/cup games on international breaks. Italian games have been high scoring this season – the first four last sunday were all 2-2, for example.
3. Tottenham-Crystal Palace BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 13/10 (Premier League, 1330 KO)
Spurs are slowly getting into some form this season, and with their new duo of Clinton N’Jie and Son Hueng-min both looking like decent captures – I think it could spur Harry Kane into life at long last. Palace have a half decent back four but a dangerous front 6 – Yohan Cabaye supplying the bullets, and along with the pace and power of the likes of Bakary Sako, Wilfried Zaha, Jason Puncheon and Yannick Bolasie – they are a threat to all teams.
4 BTTS + Over 2.5’s in the last 5 games for Pardew’s men, while just 2/5 for Spurs – but with Spurs being very good at home and Palace recording 2-1 and 3-1 wins in their opening 2 away games vs Chelsea and Norwich, you have to fancy them to bag at least one. The last meet ended 2-1, with a 0-0 before that. Both play a good brand of football, so let’s hope that translates into goals!
4. Slovan Bratislava-Trencin BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/10 (Slovakian Fortuna Liga, 1300 KO)
These two are in very good form – with Trencin winning most, if not all of their last 10/15 away games. Slovan have found form at home, with some big wins recently. With the quality of the league being sparse, BTTS is a rarity – but with 3 BTTS in their last 5 (2 + Over 2.5) Trencin are starting to leak a few goals, while the last two meetings have ended 2-1 and 3-1 to the away side today. Both average around 2.5 goals per game this season, 8 games gone. Should be a tasty fixture, with this being the least confident of my picks, but that goes to show the confidence in other games for it to be 4th!
5. Bytow-Zawisza Over 2.5 Goals @ 21/20 (Polish 1 Liga, 1600 KO)
This is the first of two option extensions to the 4 fold – having stumbled across this game early this morning. Bytow average 3.5 goals per game this season (24 in 7), while Zawisza are around a similar figure themselves (30 in 8 games). They are separated by just 2 points and 6 places in the standings.
Bytow – 3 BTTS + Ov’s in their last 5 games overall (4 BTTS) and 3/5 at home.
Zawisza – 5 BTTS + Ov’s in their last 5 games overall, with 4/5 away from home.
No previous meetings to go off – was BTTS + Over 2.5 available I would have gone for that as Polish football on the whole is very high scoring!
6. Chajniczanka-Zabki Over 2.5 Goals @ 23/20 (Polish 1 Liga, 1800 KO)
This is the 2nd of the two Polish games – but as the odds suggest not quite as clear as the above game. Chajniczanka have a total of 28 goals in 8 games so far, 3 Over 2.5’s in their last 5 games overall and 5/5 at home – with a total of 25 goals in those games – all BTTS + Over 2.5 for those interested. Zabki on the other hand are top of the league and with a total of 22 goals in 8 games, slightly lower scorers. 2/5 Over 2.5 both overall and away, but all 5 have been BTTS. Chajniczanka won 3-0 in the previous meeting, and at home I fancy them to score – but with Zabki being top of the league they are a great price @ 13/10 to win – but 2.5 being my favoured bet.
This as an overall bet is probably a lot less risky that my usual Win + BTTS bets, but with an additional two games an option if you fancy it really – the price for the four-fold (1-4) being 26/1 and for the six-fold (1-6) 120/1 (with Bet 365). My preferred double would have to be the NAP + Spurs vs Palace @ 5/1.
Best of luck to all!