Good day on Saturday – 3 winners from 4 picks, with the letdown being a goal shy of what was needed. 3.5/1 treble won, with Plymouth bagging two goals and Peterborough winning at home.
There are a few games on today – nearly a full card in Italy’s Serie B, but avoiding that in particular! Three picks in total, in for me what is a good value treble:
1. Norway Over 5.5 Corners @ 1/1 vs Hungary (Euro 2016 Playoff, 2nd Leg – 1945 KO, NAP)
I wouldn’t say this is a punt, but stats at international level are misleading. Teams play sides much better and then much worse in a short burst, months apart – and rarely of the same level the way the seeding system works for qualifying processes. Norway won this in the 1st leg 13-0, pushing Hungary the whole game and especially when trailing. Today they will be needing goals as Hungary have the away goal – and with Hungary being a very defensive side who give few goals away, I think Norway will really have to push and this could well result in a lot of corners again – not quite on the scale of before, but I think 7-9 corners. Going with gut – and partially stats!
2. Famalicao-Covilha BTTS @ 11/10 (Portuguese Segunda, 1500 KO)
Both sides are pretty poor, and sit near the bottom of the league. What makes me think this will happen is specific home and away records so far. Famalicao have a total of 18 goals in 6 home games, while Covilha have a total of 20 goals in 7 away games. 5 in 7 BTTS at home for Famalicao, and 7 in 9 away for Covilha. Good stats here.
3. Cordoba Win @ 5/4 vs Huesca (Spanish Segunda, 1600 KO)
Cordoba have been in fine home form since their relegation – 5 wins in 6 and not many conceded. Huesca are on of those weird teams that is much better away than at home, but having faced a lot of poorer teams away, their record of 2 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss makes them look better than they are. Cordoba have won four of the five by a goal to nil, and the other 3-2, so a strong defence mixed with an attack that take their chances. Huesca have conceded just 3 in 6 away games, but equally scored 3 in 6 – so not great going forward and several 0-0 draws are the result. I think Cordoba will take one of their chances and hold tight at the back to win 1-0.
1 + 2 pays 3.2/1 in a double, while the treble pays around 8.5/1.
Best of luck