Decent day today – a good deal of our picks were spot on, but as usual the odd one letting us down – namely Wolfsburg, Bielefeld and Dover. Tomorrow we have just a 4 fold Accumulator which is similar to Friday’s – around 36/1, and not including any games from the mainstream European leagues:
1. Benfica Win Both Halves @ 11/8 vs Arouca
In their last 3 meetings with Arouca, this bet would have won in 2 of those, with 4-0, 4-0 and 2-0 wins. In their last 5 league games, this bet would have won in three – with a couple of 3-0 wins, a 3-1 win and a 6-0 win (as well as a draw with Lisbon). They are in top form, really smashing teams. I can’t see Arouca causing any problems, and fully expect a 3/4-0 win, with a couple of goals in the first half to put the game to bed. Their home form is actually pretty good, but they have faced nobody near Benfica’s quality, bar Lisbon whom they lost 3-1 to.
2. Slask W-Legia Warsaw Over 2.5 Goals @ 21/20
Only one of Legia Warsaw’s away games this season have stayed Under 2.5 Goals, and they average, on average – 3.1 goals per game in general. Slask’s games are a little lower in the scoring column, but still average 2.8 goals per game. In their last 5 meetings in all comps – 3/5 have gone over 2.5 goals – so we really fancy this one!
3. Zurich Win + Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/5 vs Vaduz
In 10 meetings since 2008, when they met for the first time – just two have stayed under 2.5 goals. They faced off in January during the winter break and it ended 3-3, and in the two previous league meetings this season – 4-1 and 3-0. Zurich are good value @ Evens for the win, and for Over 2.5 as well, it makes it 11/5. In the 6 league meetings in those 10 games (4 friendlies) Zurich have won every time, and bar one all have gone over 2.5 as well. They have scored as many as 7 vs this team, who are pretty poor and the only two wins in the last god knows how many games were against Aarau, who are equally awful. Zurich have won 4/5 away games, while Vaduz have lost 3/5 at home. Probably the value bet of the day!
4. Dnipro HT-FT @ 11/8 vs Karpaty
Dnipro have won 4 of the last 5 games against this side, and HT-FT landed in 3 of those four wins – the other game it didn’t they scored 4 2nd half goals. -1 was tempting, but staying a smudge safer at a similar price. Karpaty have won 2 of their last 5 home games, but both were against the two worst teams in the league in Hoverla and Illychivets. In the last three away meetings, Dnipro have won all three, and HT-FT landed in all three of those. Form wise, Dnipro have won 3/5 away from home, so in good nic – and bagged a draw against Shakhtar, and lost to Zorya. Karpaty are bottom of the league after a 9 point deduction – even without it they would be 3rd bottom – so makes little difference.
Anyway – those are my four picks for tomorrow – all very good value and statistically likely, and backed up well by those stats.
Best of luck,