Football Tips // Thursday


Morning all

A terrific Europa League final last night – and our top two tips both landed, with the higher priced tip failing as it went over 2.5 goals, whereas I was expecting Sevilla + Under 2.5 stupidly…

The two that won were terrific value – Sevilla over 6.5 corners @ 11/10 and Dnipro -1 Card @ 6/5. Sevilla ended up with over 10 corners on their own, so that sailed through. The booking bet was a little iffy, with Sevilla having players booked for celebrating etc – but Dnipro’s nasty streak came out in the end and they had 5 cards to Sevilla’s 3.

Today I see just two bits of potential value – the NAP once again will be corners, while a 2nd, very risky bet would top it up to 5/1.

1. Steaua Bucharest-CSMS Iasi Under 9.5 Corners @ Evens (NAP) (Romanian Liga I, 1800 KO)

I fancied Win + Over 2.5 for Steaua, but then realised it’s the last game of the season and they only need a point to secure another title. Iasi have nothing to play for at all, so an early goal could see both just go through the motions in the rest of the game. Steaua are likely to dominate, but given the previous history in this fixture, it was hard to tell how many goals, because despite winning all recent meetings, it’s been a mix of 1-0 wins, 2-0 wins and 3-0/3-1 wins. Too tough to call for my liking – so I have stuck with corners. Here’s why:

  1. Steaua Bucharest Last 10 Away Games: 97 Corners – 5 Over 9.5, 5 Under 9.5.
  2. CSMS Iasi Last 10 Home Games: 93 Corners – 5 Over 9.5, 5 Under 9.5
  3. Previous 3 Fixtures: 3, 7 and 5 Corners

CSMS have won 7 of their last 9 home games, so are in very good form – the likes of Dinamo Bucharest and Astra included in those games. Steaua do have the wood over them, beating them at every opportunity. But like mentioned, a goal early on could kill the game, and with previous games having so few corners, I think rather than press too much, Steaua will be conservative, and pick their moments. Once ahead they may just retain possession – I can’t see Iasi pushing them too much as they cannot really move up or down in the table, so can relax knowing relegation is not an issue.

2. Teplice Under 21’s HT-Ft @ 2/1 vs Mas Taborsko (Czech Youth League, 1600 KO)

Teplice won this fixture 6-0 last time out, and with Mas Taborsko conceding over 130 goals so far this season, that would give any side confidence. MT have conceded 16 in their last 5 overall, and 18 in their last 5 at home. Teplice have lost the majority of games, but have scored 14 in 5 overall and 11 in 5 away, while conceding 16 overall and 19 away from home. This one is a bit of a risk, but even after a 6-0 thumping and averaging nearly 4 goals conceded per game, Taborsko are expected to do well by the bookies.

Best of luck