A decent day yesterday with 2 winners from 4 picks – the corners game stayed very low, with 8 of the 12 needed unfortunately, while Inter-Mariehamn had 2 goals in the first 30 minutes, and nothing else for the next 60, which is horrid when that happens! Valerenga won 3-0, while the Valur-Fjolnir game ended 3-3, so over 2.5 @ 17/20 landed inside 30 minutes – shame I picked Rosenborg corners bet over that as the NAP!
Today I have stuck with my gut – the market picked as the NAP is more widely available than it used to be, but if you cannot get it I have a second similar suggestion which is just as good, but a slightly smaller price:
1. Aalborg-Esbjerg BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/10 (Danish Superliga, 1800 KO) NAP
This game screams ‘Goals’ – 5 of the last 6 games have ended with both scoring and it going over 2.5 goals, while Esbjerg’s last 4 games have ended 3-2, 3-1, 5-2 and 2-1! 3 of Aalborg’s last 5 home games would have been winners in this market, while 4 of Esbjerg’s last 6 away games would have won in that market too. Solid bet, over Evens – which is brilliant!
2. Levski Sofia-Marek Over 3.5 Goals @ 13/8 (Bulgarian AFPG, 1800 KO)
At the time of writing this, no price is available anywhere on this game – it should become available soonish, but after tweeting Bet365 last night they said it would be up closer to KO, which should mean 8-10am this morning hopefully. All three of these bets should be good, as I’m expecting Levski to score 3-5 goals and not really concede.
Marek have lost 8 away games in a row, and have not scored in any of those. In those, they have conceded 3 or more 5 times, including 3 4-0 losses, one of those to Levski, who are banging the goals out! They have scored 35 in their last 10 games, and kept 6 clean sheets in those. I can’t see Marek scoring, but can see Levski scoring at least three and keeping a clean sheet. Now the prices are up I fancy over 3.5 goals @ 13/8. The two previous meets this season have been 3-1 and 4-0 to Levski – odds are good for it!
3. Stjarnan DNB @ 11/10 vs Hafnarfordur (Icelandic Premier League, 2100 KO)
These two are the best Iceland have to offer – Stjarnan you will remember playing Inter Milan in the Europa League qualifying this season. Although the away side are favourites, Stjarnan have not lost in their domestic league in 13 months, and have beaten this side in 3 of the last 5 home games, drawing one and losing one. Hafnarfordur lose away every few games, so you’d have to fancy the home side!
4. Perugia-Pescara Over 2.5 Goals @ 6/5 (Serie B, Play-Offs’s, 1730 KO)
These two played out a couple of 2-2 draws this season – and for one team at least, have a fantastic over 2.5 goals record. 7/10 of Pescara’s recent away games have gone over 2.5 goals, while they have a record of 26 over/16 under in regulation season, the highest in the league. Perugia’s record is 17 over/25 under, so not quite as hot but when playing the better sides they tend to concede. Pescara’s away record is amazing – 15 over 2.5’s in 21 games! The reason it sit’s 4th on my list – it’s Italian football…so it could be a low scorer, especially being a playoff game, but I think it will be a cracker!
1. Double: 1 + 2 @ 4.3/1
2. Treble: 1, 2 + 3 @ 7.8/1
3. Accumulator: All Four @ 18/1
Apologies about the lack of knowing the prices of all tips, but Levski bets are such good value (I hope) that I cannot miss out on it. If it is not posted by 1pm – discard it and go with the other three games, or even if you cannot wait – go with the other three.
Best of luck