Yesterday started well and ended oh so close to a double winner! Orenburg won 4-0 in the 3pm KO, but in the latter game Empoli went down to 10 men in a 2-0 defeat to Frosinone and on the corners bet came up one short! They won 5-4, after being 4-2 down with 20 minutes to go but could not muster one more…
Moving swiftly on to today – 2 picks from the Champions League and 2 from the Football League:
1. Dynamo Kyiv Win @ 1/1 vs Maccabi Tel Aviv (1945 KO, Champions League)
Kyiv started well with a hard earned 2-2 draw with Porto. Tel Aviv on the other hand took a beating from Chelsea. Looking at the form both play in pretty poor leagues – Dynamo winning 7/10 overall in all comps and 8/10 away from home – Maccabi losing 4/10 overall and 5/10 at home. I think the Ukrainians have the stronger team, especially with Yarmolenko. Very good price, and what should be a good win!
2. Roma Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 1/1 vs BATE Borisov (1945 KO, Champions League – NAP)
Roma are in good nick – winning 5-1 on the weekend and in the CL, holding Barcelona to a 1-1 draw which is not to be sniffed at! BATE play in a very poor league so rarely get challenged – losing once in 10, but in the CL got whacked 4-1 by Leverkusen. With the attacking talents of Roma I’m fully expecting them to bag 2 goals and like Bayer win quite easily. BATE have the potential to be cannon fodder for the entire group, so will have to work hard to keep out the advances of Iturrbe, Salah, Dzeko, Pjanic, Totti and Gervinho – a very talented, pacey lineup with great finishers like Totti and Dzeko.
3. Peterborough-Bury BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 23/20 (1945 KO, League One)
Both of these sides score and leak goals like there is no tomorrow – a total of 27 for P’boro and 30 for Bury (in 9 league games) – both conceding in excess of 1.5 goals per game and scoring more than that too! Here are the stats:
* Peterborough – 6 BTTS + Over 2.5 in 12 matches in all competitions, with 5 BTTS in the last 5 home games (3 over 2.5’s)
* Bury – 8 BTTS + Over 2.5 in 12 matches in all competitions, with 4 BTTS + Ov’s in the last 5 away matches
For me statistically very likely and at a good price!
4. Morecambe-Luton BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/8 (1945 KO, League Two)
These two sides’ records are identical to the above – 27 goals in 9 for Luton and 30 in 9 for Morecambe (league). Last season they met twice and the most recent was a 3-2 win for Morecambe in a great game! Here are the stats:
* Morecambe – 5 BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals in 9 league games – 2/4 at home
* Luton – 8 BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals in 12 (all competitions) – 3/4 away, 100% BTTS
Morecambe are in very good home form, and with Luton being fairly high scoring away from home I think it should be another cracker!
We all know how Champions League football can be – I’d suggest the two doubles:
1. CL Double: 1 + 2 @ 3/1
2. Football League Double: 3 + 4 @ 4/1
3. Overall Acca: 20/1
If you are not keen on the Champions League games, you could add Chesterfield (6/5 vs Blackpool) and Walsall (7/5 vs Scunthorpe) for a 24/1 acca. Both selected teams are playing teams in the bottom few, and are in good form themselves. All 6 pay a whopping 100/1.
Best of luck