Apologies for the last few days – not ideal, and with things like missed penalties and late equalizers – last night’s risky 20/1 bet was not that far off, as Norrkoping lost 3-2 (missing a pen at 1-1), while Goteborg led 2-1 up until the final minute or two, blowing it at the last. My system of picking a max of 4 games per day has it’s flaws, as to match last season’s % rate of 65-70% I need to be hitting 3/4 every day, and when picking games at prices of Evens or above, that’s quite tough – however 3 wins of 20/1+ in the last month and 6 accumulators just one game/goal off – no shame in that!
Onto today – I’ve picked a couple of Champions League games and a couple from the lower leagues in England in what will be a 25/1 tip:
1. Chelsea-Dynamo Kyiv BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 7/5 (Champions League, 1945 KO)
Chelsea have been poor this season, and remain that way despite a 2-0 win over struggling Villa at the weekend. They have kept just 3 clean sheets in 12 this season, conceding goals to sides in shocking form such as WBA, Newcastle and even a League One side in Walsall! Away from home, they have conceded every game, with BTTS + Over 2.5 landing in 5 out of 6! No matter what the team, you just see them conceding.
Dynamo have a fascinating team – attacking talent such as Junior Moraes, Yarmolenko, Derlis Gonzalez, Belhanda, Veloso, Teodorczyk as well as defensive stars like Alexander Dragovic, Antunes and Danilo Silva. It’s no wonder they dominate Ukrainian football, and excel on the European stage too. They have lost just 2 of their last 25 home games, while keeping a tally of clean sheets that’s goes into double figures. I think Chelsea will score, but so will Dynamo.
2. Olympiakos-Dinamo Zagreb BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 7/5 (Champions League, 1945 KO)
Both of these two have beaten Arsenal, with both games winning in this bet. Both also lost to Bayern – however with Arsenal likely to lose their next two against Bayern, one of these two should go through. Domestically, neither of these sides are challenged – with both winning titles most seasons.
Zagreb have had a long season so far, playing 22 games and only losing to Bayern – but conceding in 16/22, with BTTS + Over 2.5 in 9 – but a lot more BTTS! Olympiakos have played 9 games, winning 8 and having BTTS + Over 2.5 in 5. A lot rests on the next two group games involving these two, and with both in good form I expect a very good game, and a few goals to boot!
3. Gillingham-Scunthorpe BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/10 (League One, 1945 KO)
Gillingham are top of the league, but defensively fragile at times. 6 BTTS + Over 2.5 goals in their last 10 games, and 4/7 at home this season. Those 4 at home have all come in a row. Scunthorpe have a record of just over 50% in this market so far this season, but over 80% away, with 8/15 overall and 5/6 away. This fixture ended 2-1 and 3-0 to Scunny last season, but with Gillingham’s home form, I’m expecting a win for them, but 3/4 goals in the match.
4. Luton-Leyton Orient BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/10 (League Two, 1945 KO)
Luton have a record of 7 BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals in their last 10 games home and away, and 5/9 at home this season, including a 2-1 win in the same fixture in the JP Trophy. Leyton Orient’s record for this isn’t amazing, with 4/10 overall, but 8/10 simply BTTS. Those four have come in their last four games, while their form has dropped off a cliff. Away from home, Orient have failed to keep a clean sheet in 8 attempts, while scoring in 7/8 – with 7/8 being BTTS. Luton have scored in 8/9 at home, conceding in 7/9 at home.
I’m not adding a NAP today – it seems the last few weeks whichever I chose as the NAP goes down the drain. My favoured double however is 1 + 4 @ 4/1, with the Acca as mentioned paying a smudge under 25/1 (24.8 I believe).
Best of luck