A cracking day yet again – Malmo Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 6/4 came in nicely with 20 to go, while Torino-Genoa BTTS @ 4/5 landed after 60, with the game ending 5-1 to Genoa. It made it all the sweeter as just the Malmo win @ 13/8 was tempting, but after fan trouble, the game was delayed – and Elfsborg equalised in the 106th minute (although it cost me a 4/1 single on Malmo + BTTS with a free £25 bet with Titanbet…)
Today looks full of value – 2/3 Turkish games took my fancy, with 2 selected as well as a tip from Norway and one in the Champions League tie – our preview for the week of 2nd leg’s is coming up shortly. Here are my 4 tips, with the second being the NAP:
1. Bayern Munich Over 2.5 Cards @ Evs (or Most Booking Points @ 6/4) vs Barcelona (1945 KO)
Bayern ended up with 3 cards last time in the first leg, before the glut of late goals. This time around, with a 3 goal deficit, they could get a little fiery if either Barca frustrate their effort to score early goals, or Barca themselves get a goal that would put it to be – Germans are known for being slightly petulant when losing. They’ve lost 4 in a row now, and have had over 2.5 cards in all – with Reina getting sent off on the weekend, as well as 2 other bookings. With Messi, Neymar and Suarez being very light on their feet – they could go down very easily, and draw in the bookings.
So – Over 2.5 Cards is with Bet365, while Most Booking Points is William Hill – they are the main two bookmakers most go with, and with over 2.5 not available on 365, I thought an alternate option would help those who cannot get that market.
2. Kasimpasa-Balikesirspor Over 3.5 Goals @ Evs (Turkish SPOR-Bet Liga, 1745 KO) (NAP)
This game is full of goals – in the last game between these two it ended 5-3 to Balikesirspor. In the last 5 home games for Kasimpasa, there have been 25 goals and 4/5 have gone over 3.5 goals. Overall – their last 5 games have gone over 3.5 goals! For Balikesirspor, 4 of their last 5 away games have gone over, with 23 goals in those. Included there was a 4-3 loss to Fenerbache, so they can really score goals against the best!
- Balikesirpsor (Over/Under) – 16 Over/14 Under (Overall), 9 Over/6 Under (Away)
- Kasimpasa (Over/Under) – 15 Over/15 Under (Overall), 8 Over/7 Under (Home)
Balikesirspor average 3.8 goals per game this season, while Kasimpasa average 3.3 goals per game – so this is very likely! You will be unlucky to see this stay under!
3. Rosenborg Win + BTTS @ 9/5 vs Mjondalen (Norwegian Tippeligaen, 1700 KO)
Rosenborg have won 6/7 games this season – just a draw and 6 wins! 3 of those 6 have been Win + BTTS, and 2 of those 3 have been away from home (where they have won 3/3). They are scoring so many goals – over 20 so far. Mjondalen have come up and are doing okay, but conceding a lot. They are also scoring a nice amount – their last game was a 4-3 win over Tromso, as well as 4 BTTS games in their last 5. 22 goals in their 7 games so far, and have conceded 3/4 goals several times. A good price, but a risk, as a 3/4-0 win is possible, but we fancy the home side to bag a goal.
4. Istanbul Basaksehir Win + BTTS @ 9/4 vs Sivasspor (Turkish SPOR-Bet Liga, 1445 KO)
Istanbul have won this game 2-0 the last two meetings, and 4 of the last 5. Sivasspor are conceding tank loads, even when winning, they still concede 2 usually. Istanbul have won 2 of their last 3 games 3-1. BTTS has occurred in 4/5 games for Istanbul, and 5/5 away games for Sivasspor – lost 2, won 2 and drawn 1. This should be a cracking game!
Well – the Acca pays over 30/1, but I would suggest 2 doubles:
1. Bayern Over 2.5 Cards @ Evs + Kasimpasa-Balikesirspor Over 3.5 Goals @ Evs – 3/1
2. Rosenborg + BTTS @ 9/5 and Istanbul + BTTS @ 9/4 – 8/1
Best of luck – hopefully a repeat of today!