Last few days have been a mare! Last night Romania absolutely dominated Greece for 90 minutes (Greece must have had about 2 shots all night) and simply could not find the net. Germany on the other hand found a perfect day for Neuer to have his stupid moment, and eventually won 3-2 but conceded 2 to Scotland! Seriously? Jesus!
Anyway – last day today, thank the lord – and I’m looking to end the spell with a bang. 4 bets, all good value and statistically look good:
1. Switzerland Over 3.5 Corners @ 1/1 vs England (1945 KO – NAP)
Switzerland have had a total of 56 corners in their 7 qualifiers so far – winning 6-3, 14-2, 10-2, 8-2, 2-1, 11-2 and then losing 6-5 to England. Those stats are pointless really when you are facing San Marino, Lithuania and Estonia…but against a better team who will attack them, I feel with their attacking talents they could cause England problems – with quite an inexperienced back four England will probably concede – having watched all of their recent games I don’t have any confidence in the likes of Clyne (has issues simply controlling a ball), Shaw (looks to get forward far too often, defensively not brilliant) and the likes of Stones, Cahill and Jagielka (not great on the ball, had a few moments against San Marino). 4 corners for Swiss? I’d think that should happen easily – with Joe Hart in goal as well, he does like making the most out of a save for the cameras.
2. Slovenia Win + Under 2.5 Match Goals @ 11/8 vs Estonia (1945 KO)
Slovenia are a very good team. They should make it into the playoffs with wins over their next three opponents – Estonia first up. They lost the previous meeting 1-0 after dominating much of the game, but after scoring 6 goals in 4 ties vs England and Switzerland they will have a little confidence going into this must-win game. Estonia are pretty awful, and away from home even worse. They have failed to score in 8 of their last 10 away games, even against San Marino. Their games never have too many goals in though – Under 2.5 in 8 of their last 10 games. Fancy a 1-0 or 2-0 win for the Slovenians.
3. Spain Win Both Halves @ 11/10 vs Macedonia (1945 KO)
Macedonia are pretty awful – 7 losses in their last 10 games, including the 1-0 loss to Luxembourg on the weekend. They are bottom of the group, and with a 5-1 hiding last time from Spain, I expect much of the same. Spain won the first half 3-1 and the 2nd 2-0, and this time I think it will not be as high but something along the lines of 1-0 in the 1st half and 2-0 in the 2nd. Spain are in good nick, winning 6 of their 7 games (a loss to Slovakia the only blip). Win Both Halves have come in against teams like Belarus and Luxembourg – they should pick Macedonia apart as the night goes on and win easily.
4. Montenegro Win @ Evens vs Moldova (1945 KO)
In Moldova’s last 10 games – 6 losses and 4 draws (draws against Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Liechtenstein and Russia) – so that should tell you something about them. Monetenegro have not faired well since the split with Serbia – 2 wins in 7 games in qualifying and this is a must win for them if they want to get into the playoffs in November. A 2-0 win in the previous meeting and Stefan Jovetic/Vucinic up front should see them win this.
1. NAP: 1 @ 1/1
2. Double: 1 + 3 @ 3.2/1
3. Treble: 1-3 @ 8.5/1
4. Accumulator: 1-4 @ 19/1
Best of luck