Football Tips // Wednesday


Morning all!

Full house yesterday – in the two earlier games, Trencin scored in the 47th minute to win the first half, and held that lead until FT, even with the opposition missing a penalty. Kalmar won 3-1, meaning over 2.5 goals flew in @ 43/40 and then finally in the NAP, Valladolid won 3-1 – securing the NAP itself, 3/1 double and a 7.5/1 treble!

People are asking about how much to put on what bet…sometimes suggesting hundreds – which I feel uncomfortable answering, because we have good days and bad days – and although we are doing well recently, cannot guarantee anything really. One bad performance in the NAP would end all bets, so to back a single, double, treble and accumulator could be a bad idea if we have a stinker. So my advice would probably be if you are backing all bets, small stakes for each, but bigger amounts – just two – a NAP, and one of the other three, if I’ve picked four bets…

For today – 2 over 2.5 goals’ games, and 2 HT-FT games – all Evens or above – and just a reminder – HT/FT is to be leading at HT, and winning at FT, not Win Both Halves, which some have been getting confused with!

1. Basel HT-FT @ 6/5 vs Aarau (Swiss Super League, 1930 KO) (NAP)

Basel may have won the league, and Aarau may have been doomed to relegation, pretty much – but quality is permament, and Basel have that in abundance. Here are the reasons why I’m backing HT-FT:

Basel: 23 wins this season, 20 HT-FT in those 23. Of 12 away wins, 11 have been HT-FT.

Aarau: 17 losses this season, 15 HT-FT in those! 10 losses at home, 8 have been HT-FT.

In recent games in the last 2 years, Basel have won 6 out of 7, and all have been HT-FT, often score 3-5 goals in the first half!

2. Mallorca-Ponferradina Over 2.5 Goals @ 21/20 (Spanish Segunda, 1900 KO)

Keep this one simple.

Mallorca: 5 over 2.5 goals in their last 6 home games.

Ponferradina: 5 over 2.5 goals in their last 6 away games.

Both have a 50% record overall (over 2.5 goals) and both, with scored/conceded combined, have over 100 goals this season. In the only 3 meetings the games have ended 2-2, 3-1 and 2-0, with Ponferradina yet to lose to them.

3. Gornik Zabre-Lechia Gdansk Over 2.5 Goals @ Evens (Polish Ekstraklasa, 1700 KO)

Gornik have had over 2.5 goals in 6 of their last 10 home games (4 in their last 6), and scored 2 or more in 7 of their last 10 home games. Meanwhile Gdansk have had over 2.5 goals in their last 4 away games. Both have a 50% record of over 2.5 in the Championship stage, (8 over, 8 under) and both have a 62% record while home/away (5-3 for Gornik at home, Lechia away). In the last 3 games between the two, the games have ended 1-0, 3-1 and 2-2!

4. BATE Borisov HT-FT @ 7/5 vs Zhodino (Belarusian Vysshaya Liga, 1730 KO)

Very early in the season on Belarus, but BATE have won 5 out of 6 games, 3 of those HT-FT. Zhodino have lost 3/6 so far, with one loss at HT-FT. In all games including Cup games, BATE have won 8/10 games in 2015, drawing the other two, beating their main rival Dynamo Minsk twice, and well.

In their last 5 away meets with Zhodino, 4 wins – 3 of those HT-FT. This is last on my list as it’s the most risky bet!


So, I have listed them in order I most rate them, so Basel – the NAP, 1st, and BATE, the biggest risk – 4th. Here’s my double/treble:

1. NAP – 6/5

2. Double: 1 + 2 – 3.5/1

3. Treble: 1 + 2 + 3 – 8/1

4. Accumulator: 20/1

Best of luck!