Football Tips // Wednesday


Morning all

Shocker yesterday – Essen simply dominated the game but time and time again got caught on the break and lost 3-0. Dumbfounded is the word. 2/4 on the BTTS + Over 2.5 goals acca – mixed fortunes in those games.

Today I have seen one bit of value on the corners market in Brazil:

1. Joinville-Sao Paulo Over 5 First Half Corners @ 5/4 (Brazilian Serie A, 2330 KO – NAP)

On Bet365 it is under Campeonato Brasileiro.

Now I’ve gone through the stats – and here’s what I’ve found on the averages:

In the last 10 games (home and away):

Joinville: 5.3 corners in the first half.
Sao Paulo: 5.9 corners in the first half.

In the last 10 games (home or away):

Joinvile (Home): 3.9 corners in the first half
Sao Paulo (Away): 5.8 corners in the first half

Sao Paulo have only gone under 5 corners once in their last 10 away games, and only twice in their last 10 overall. The trend I’ve seen is most of their match corners come in the first half, with often 6, 7 or more. Joinville are a team who have had over 5 corners only twice in their last 10 home games, but in this I feel Sao Paulo will push it over 5.

The win outright was tempting @ 13/10 for Sao Paolo but their away form is not brilliant, with 3 wins in 11. Joinville are not much better at home, but I feel this could be a low scoring draw. Both overall and home/away both average 10+ corners per game – so although over 11 @ 13/10 is tempting, Sao Paulo games have exactly hit 10 corners in 4 games in their last 10 away which is concerning if over 11 was the bet. Sticking with Over 5 FHC’s @ 5/4.

With the international break coming up we have a preview for Thursday to Saturday coming up later today. Although many people are not keen on International football, personally I love it! Match markets provide very little value, but with such mis-matches it gives plenty of value elsewhere such as team goals etc.

Best of luck!