Fantastic day yesterday! One goal off both 26/1 and 20/1 Accumulators, with the Gateshead-Halifax game having a goal disallowed and a penalty missed – so luck was not in there – however the double landed with Man City winning 4-1 and Everton winning 2-1. The 3rd game was Cheltenham-Forest Green BTTS + Over 2.5, with the score ending 2-2 in a high scoring 2nd half.
The 2nd bet was Olympiakos -1 (Won 3-1), Dijon Win (Won 1-0), Cagliari Win (Won 3-1) and Metz DNB (Drew 1-1, voided) for an 8/1 treble winner, as well as the 4/1 double in the Cup.
Today we are mixing the Cup with European leagues – there seems to be a lot of value out there, but when you look deeper into the games a lot of them are very close, too close for me. I have picked 2 Capital One Cup and 2 from Sweden and Spain for a 18/1 Acca, with two nicely priced doubles:
1. Newcastle-Sheffield Wednesday BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 6/5 (Capital One Cup, NAP – 1945 KO)
If someone bribed this Newcastle team with a cheque for a £1b each, they could not keep a clean sheet! With it being the Cup, I can see a few changes such as Ayoze Perez, Siem de Jong, Jamaal Lascelles and even Rolando Aarons coming in – but it should be a strong 11, which won 4-1 vs Northampton in the 2nd Round. Sheff Weds look dangerous with a new look about them this season – a few talented Portuguese players mixed with some stalwarts at that level. In their 10 games in all competitions this season there have been 7 BTTS and 5 BTTS + Over 2.5’s. They are culpable at the back though with plenty conceded but they should give this a real go!
2. Chelsea -1 Goal Handicap @ 21/20 vs Walsall (Capital One Cup, 1945 KO)
Mourinho has confirmed there will be changes tonight with the likes of John Terry and Falcao to come in. Bar that it could be a very strong starting 11, with the likes of Willian, Loftus Cheek, Baba Rahman and a few others given starts as well. Hazard or Pedro could well feature – but having won 2 in a row they will want to keep the winning feeling going. Walsall have been very good in League One so far, with Tom Bradshaw being a threat up front for them. No matter what, I believe Chelsea will win and win well.
3. AIK Stockholm Win @ 1/1 vs Sundsvall (Swedish Allsvenskan, 1805 KO)
AIK have won 9 games on the trott in league and cup, losing last 10 games ago. They beat this outfit 4-1 back in their last meeting and will have every confidence in doing similar as Sundsvall have lost 3 of their last 5 games and won just 2 of 10 overall – losing 5. They have lost 2 in a row at home to Atvidabergs and Falkenbergs – two of the worst teams in the league. Excellent price!
4. Real Madrid Over 5.5 Corners @ 1/1 vs Athletic Bilbao (Spanish La Liga, 2000 KO)
Real often dominate games against most teams, but their domination leads to mass possession and few corners (an average of 4.4 corners per away game in the last 10). Bilbao can often be a bit of a bogey team for them, either scoring first or holding them for long period. The longer they are held the more they attack and the more they will shoot with more corners likely to occur.
This season Real have had 38 corners in 5 games, an averaging nearly 8, while Bilbao have conceded 59 in 9 (average of 6.5) while if you take out two games against Zilina, a low ranking European opposition the average goes up slightly to 7.3 corners per game conceded. In the last 4 meetings between the two there have been a total of 28 corners for Real Madrid, with the lowest being 3 in a game where they had a man sent off (8, 8, 3 and 9) so the average is still around 7 per game for them.
Accumulator pays around 17/1 in total, while if you don’t fancy either the Cup games or the league games you can get separate doubles of 3.5/1 and 3/1.
Best of luck