Fantastic day yesterday – despite Roma going 3-0 down at one point they were the last team to win for us, which secured a 20/1 accumulator as Dynamo Kyiv were 2-0 up, Luton-Morecambe was 2-1 after 25 minutes (BTTS + Over 2.5) as was Peterborough-Bury after 48 minutes despite the former being down to 10 men – with those games ending 1-3 and 2-3, and both good odds! 3/1 and 4/1 doubles also came in as did the NAP (everything won, so it had to!). Excellent!
Today was a little more difficult to pick games out – with just 8 Champions League games and no value in match result odds – I had to delve a little deeper, but after nearly an hour of digging through stats, I’m happy with the four I picked:
1. Real Madrid -2 Goal Handicap @ 6/4 vs Malmo (NAP)
Real, on their day – can put 4-6 goals past the best of opposition. 4-0 vs Shakhtar in the 1st game, and despite a struggle since, putting only 1 goal past Granada and a goal-less draw against Malaga – I think they will fire again in this game. Malmo concede 2’s and 3’s against average to poor Swedish teams, and Celtic…but they have nobody to match up to Real Madrid’s quality. Should be an easy win and a case of how many!
2. PSG-Shakhtar Over 9.5 Corners @ 1/1
(PSG Win @ 17/20 – Next Best)
If you look at both teams’ last 5 games you will see why I have tipped this:
PSG: 11, 13, 12, 14 + 17 = 67 corners at an average of 13.4 per game
Shakhtar: 13, 10, 8, 14 + 14 = 59 corners at an average of 11.8 per game
-1 PSG Handicap was tempting – but as Shakhtar get a load of corners, I’m playing safe and going with Over 9.5 @ 1/1
3. Man Utd-Wolfsburg BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/10
A 2-1 loss against PSV tells you Man Utd have defensive issues at times. With Martial, Rooney, Depay and the likes going forward they should score, but even with the additions of Darmian, they still lack quality in their backline – and even with De Gea, the likes of Dost, Schurrle, Draxler and Kruse should find a way past them. Ricardo Rodriguez is a good should A/T on the goalscorer markets as he takes penalties and free kicks the last time I checked, as had a mean left boot on him too – from left back a big threat!
4. Galatasaray Win @ Corners Match Bet – @ 21/20 (1700 KO)
(Galatasaray Win @ 7/5 – Next Best)
This is a rarity! I’ve never seen two teams the same price to win on corners. I was thinking -1 before seeing the odds, but they are the same odds so I’d think the Win is a better bet, and safer as Astana have lost 5 of their 7 ties so far in the Champions League (and Qualifying) on corners to some very poor teams like Maribor, HJK and Apoel. Gala, with the likes of Sneijder and a lot of very good players in their team should win on corners – not so keen on the match as Astana are very good at keeping it tight and often getting a win. Galatasaray beat Atletico Madrid 8-3 on corners in the 1st game, so this also gives me a lot of confidence!
For a double, I would go with 1 + 3 @ 4/1 – corners are a good market but often hard to trust – We’ve lost bets recently by one corner, which has cost us massive accumulators. When it goes well, it’s brilliant! But a massively frustrating market! The accumulator pays 20.5/1 with Bet 365, it may vary with others.
If you cannot get either of the corner markets – go straight for the wins. One is a better price than the corners, one is slightly lower but overall you get a better price @ 23/1. I understand that sometimes we are a little favourable towards 365, but for me they offer the widest variety of bets and they are available days before games, whereas the likes of SkyBet are dithering up until hours before the game. I think the ‘Next Best’ option will help those who cannot get the markets that are unavailable via other bookies.
Best of luck