For me, this weekend has the look of the best in a long time. Loads of good value about, both in terms of handicaps and regular match results. For my accumulator this weekend I have picked two games from Saturday and Sunday to form a 33/1 four fold:
Newcastle vs Liverpool: Liverpool -1 Goal Handicap @ 13/8 (Sunday, 1600 KO – Premier League)
This is perhaps my favourite bet for the weekend.
Newcastle are just awful – conceding the joint most goals in the league, and were desperate enough to bring back Mike Williamson from his loan spell at Wolves to solve the defensive issues, but got injured immediately! There is no leadership, and no hope. Once they concede a goal, the heads drop and they give up. Now look at Liverpool – not my favourite team by any stretch of the imagination but when you score 3, 4 and 6 against Chelsea, Man City and Southampton you must give credit.
With Sturridge back, Benteke in a bullying mood and the rest of the team performing, a 2 goal win against a deflated Newcastle looks amazing value @ 13/8!
Personally I have backed -2 @ 4/1 and am also putting £10 on Liverpool to score 5+ @ 16/1…NUFC conceded 5 against Palace and look demoralised!
Cagliari vs Como: Calgiari -1 Goal Handicap @ 1/1 (Sunday, 1630 KO – Serie B)
This should be an easy win. Cagliari have 8 wins from 8 at home, and have scored at least 2 goals a game, often a lot more. 5 of the 8 have been -1 or better wins, while the others have usually been 2-1, 3-2 etc. Either way – a lot of goals involved and the majority in the favour of Cagliari
They face Como, bottom of the table with one win all season and 4 losses in 7 away games, 75% of which were by -1 goal. Nearly 2 goals per game conceded on average, and a huge struggle to gain any points.
-1 @ 1/1 looks very good value!
Swansea vs Leicester: Leicester Win @ 7/4 (Saturday, 1500 KO – Premier League)
Leicester are in terrific form, while Swansea are very much not. Leicester – 4 wins and 3 draws away from home, while Swansea have won just 2/7 at home which is pretty awful
Confidence will be a big thing here, and with Monk under pressure a Leicester win could spell the end for him as they slide down the table. Leicester won this fixture 2-0 in May – and with Vardy and Mahrez in good form, as well as the whole side performing as a unit – you’d have to fancy them to take this one at very high odds!
Trapani vs Avellino: BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 13/10 (Saturday, 1400 KO – Serie B)
I know…2 Italian teams in one bet! Risky, but statistically very good!
Trapani at home – scored in 6/8, conceded in 6/8. Over 2.5 goals in…you guessed it – 6/8 (8/15 overall). BTTS + Over 2.5 in 4/8.
Avellino away – scored in 8/8 (9/9 if you include the Coppa Italia game vs Palermo) and conceded in 7/8. Over 2.5 goals in 6/8 (11/15 overall). BTTS + Over 2.5 goals in 5/8, with BTTS in 7/8.
The most impressive thing about Avellino is that away sides rarely do well, but they give it a real go! They have scored against the likes of Cagliari, Pescara, Crotone and Bari – who are among the best teams at home in this league. Scoring in every away game this season is a good achievement.
In terms of recent meetings – the last 5 have ended 1-1, 4-1, 3-3, 1-1 and 2-2, so a good track record of goals! I like this bet!
Best of luck for the weekend!