A very nice 3/1 double for us last week on the handicap markets with both Denver and Pittsburgh covering easily on the handicap markets. Not as much success on the anytime scorers markets with only Martavis Bryant registering a touchdown from the recommended three at odds of 11/10. As we edge a week closer to playoffs here is what I see as the value picks in week 14.
Buffalo Bills @ Evens Vs Philadelphia Eagles
On the basis of score line alone Philadelphia’s 35-28 victory over a New England Patriots side that has previously lost only one game this year would seem to give them confidence that they had turned a corner on an unimpressive campaign. However delving deeper into the stats sheet shows that the same inefficiencies remain within the Eagles offence. Quarterback Sam Bradford totalled just 128 passing yards and was saved by the fact that special teams returned two touchdowns and his defence one. That victory has brought them back to a joint lead in the NFC East, perhaps the weakest in the NFL, albeit with a losing record. The oddsmakers seem to have over reacted to this victory making them 1 point favourites for their home clash with the Bills. Don’t be fooled though as Buffalo appear the better side on both sides of the ball.
The Bills come into the game having boosted their own self belief by beating a resurgent Houston Texans side last week. Running back LeSean McCoy will be eager to put in a big performance on his return to Lincoln Field especially considering his animosity shown to ex coach Chip Kelly since being traded to the Bills. He should be poised for a big day in this one against a defence that gives up almost 125 yards a game against the run. Dual threat QB Tyrod Taylor also finally seems to have been given license to take some shots down the field and this has benefited big play receiver Sammy Watkins in recent weeks.
The Eagles special teams/Defence can’t be relied upon to pick up 21 points each week and the Bills have a great shot at winning as underdogs this weekend at fantastic odds.
New York Giants -2 @ 10/11 Vs Miami Dolphins (Tuesday Morning 1.30am)
The last game of the week sees the Giants coming off an agonising loss to city rivals, the Jets, travelling to play the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins come into the game on the back of a close win against a seriously depleted Baltimore Ravens side. While not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs there is no doubt that their eyes are already on next season. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has disappointed all year and threw for just 86 yards last weekend while struggling to get Jarvis Landry involved. Running back Lamar Miller has also been underused although he did look much more productive last weekend with a new offensive coordinator calling the plays.
The Giants are coming off three straight losses and need a victory badly to try and take control in the NFC East. Last week they blew a ten point lead in the 4th quarter before slipping to defeat. This is the 5th time this season where the Giants have let a lead slip in the last quarter. In fact if each of their games this year had ended with 75 seconds left on the clock they would have a 10-2 record! All this has led to pressure on two time Superbowl winning coach Tom Coughlin and we ourselves have had our fingers burned on the Giants more than once this year. However Quarterback Eli Manning, though hot and cold does have the ability to pick apart any team in the league when he’s rolling while WR Odell Beckham Jr is looking unstoppable with spectacular catches week after week. Given that they have much more at stake I’m happy to give the Giants one more chance this week to win by a field goal or more.
Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Allan Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars Vs Indianapolis Colts @ Evens
Robinson comes into this one with 9 TDs in his last 8 games including last weeks demolition job against the Tennessee Titans. He will face a pass defence that is third worst in the NFL against opposing wide receivers and although he draw coverage from Vontae Davis is very nicely priced to add to his TD column in this one.
Brandon Marshall, New York Jets Vs Tennessee Titans @ 6/5
Marshall was simply awesome last weekend and should find success against a Titans defence that gave up 5 passing touchdowns last weekend. With a touchdown in each of this last 5 starts, he is begging to be backed at odds against.
The double on these two will net odds of greater than 3/1. For those of you who were struggling to see these markets last weekend they can be found on Paddy Power by clicking on the game, then all markets, then Touchdown Scorers and anytime touchdown.
That’s the lot for this weekend. My main two of Buffalo and the New York Giants combine to a near 3/1 double. For those seeking a riskier bet at higher odds I like sticking with the high powered offence of the Pittsburgh Steelers (11/10) to knock off the Cincinnati Bengals on the road. This would bring it up to a 7/1 treble.
As always best of luck and see you next week.