NFL Preview + Tips // Week 15


Hopefully most of you were on board last week as the touchdown double landed at odds of just under 7/2. Out the best two bets on the match results/handicap markets, the Giants obliged but the Bills fell to a late field goal. The also tipped Pittsburgh Steelers won easily to give us 4 out of 5 for the week. Week 15 brings a number of lop sided contests with only one game taking place between sides who both have winning records. Despite there are still some good value bets out there. We are also a little earlier with the preview this week as one of the tipped games being played in the early hours of Sunday morning.

Handicap Markets

New York Jets -3.5@21/20 Vs Dallas Cowboys (1.25am Sunday)

A Saturday night game in the U.S. (or early Sunday morning in the British Isles) gives us another live NFL game to look forward to this weekend. All signs seem to point to a routine New York victory in this one. The Jets are rolling after three wins on the bounce including last week’s demolition of Tennessee and have pushed themselves into the AFC wildcard places. On both sides of the ball they seem to have hit their stride. Chris Ivory has been running well between the twenties and now gets to face a Dallas defence that was destroyed by Eddie Lacy last week. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has controlled the turnovers that have dogged him throughout his career and wide receivers Marshall and Decker are on fire. Last week they both caught TDs in the same game for the 7th time this season tying an NFL record. Both should be primed for big days again.
Meanwhile Dallas looks like they are just waiting for the season to end. Although not mathematically eliminated from the playoff race, their injury decimated side would require something of a miracle. Matt Cassel has inspired little confidence filling in for Tony Romo while Dez Bryant seems uninterested catching one pass for 9 yards last week. Running back Darren McFadden has provided a one man offence but even he will be hard pressed to keep Dallas in touch when facing the top team in the league against the run.
With the Jets tied with Kansas and Pittsburgh with 8-5 records they can’t afford any slip ups in this one and I expect them to prevail easily. Those worried about the ½ point on the handicap can find them at -3 with some bookmakers at slightly shorter odds. Personally I’d be more intrigued with the alternative handicap markets where they can be backed at 13/8 giving up 6 ½ points as I could see this being a double digit victory.

Arizona Cardinals -3.5@20/21 Vs Philadelphia Eagles (1.30am Monday)

The Eagles season looked to be dead and gone after they were blown out by the Detroit Lions on thanksgiving. The return of Quarterback Sam Bradford and subsequently winning there next two games have put them right back in the hunt. Bradford undoubtedly makes them a better team and their offence has been more fluid since his return. They are 6-2 when he has played the full game although they still struggled to move the ball in the 4th quarter against Buffalo last weekend. Their ability to make big plays on defence and special teams gives them the chance to win against any team but they will have to be on the top of their game to keep up with the Cardinals.
Arizona has now won 7 games in a row and has a legitimate claim to being the most complete team in the NFL. Their potent attack will take some big shots down the field and while the Eagles defence has tightened up a little in the last two weeks they still gave up 45pts a game in the two weeks previous to that. The Cardinals with a victory here can wrap up their division and if they get their nose in front early this one could turn ugly!

These two will add up to a nice 3/1 double. Green Bay (-3) look to be back firing on (almost) all cylinders and I like them to cover in their matchup with the Raiders. That would top this up to around 7/1.

Anytime Touchdown Scorers Markets

Lamar Miller (Miami Dolphins) @11/10 Vs San Diego Chargers

Miller has a monster first half last week rushing for over 80yds and two TDs before having to leave the game in the third quarter with an ankle injury. Despite that injury he’s good to go this week and very generous odds to score a TD since he will likely be the focal point of the attack.

A.J. Green (Cincinatti Bengals) @10/11 Vs San Francisco 49ers

Green would be closer to 1/2 to score a TD in this where it not for the fact that starting quarterback Andy Dalton is out and is replaced by backup McCarron. However McCarron proved competent last week throwing for two touchdowns including one to Green. Expect him to lean heavily on his number one receiving option against the 49ers.

Demaryius Thomas (Denver Broncos) @6/4 Vs Pittsburgh Steelers

While Thomas has been largely inefficient this season only scoring 3 TDs he still receives a high volume of targets. The Steelers weaknesses is their secondary and the likelihood is that Denver will have to throw the ball facing a high powered offence. I like the chance of a productive week for Thomas.

The preferred double would be Miller and Green but all are decent individual bets.

While researching the write up this week I came across an interesting stat. If you had of placed a £100 bet on the now 13-0 Carolina Panthers before their opening match this season and subsequently allowed your winnings to roll over each week backing them you would by now have accumulated £65000! And following last week’s 38-0 blowout against the Atlanta Falcons you’d have to be crazy to back against them, right?? Well as unhinged as it may seem that is exactly what I am considering this weekend! In a sport where over 50% of game are decided by less than a touchdown a perfect 16-0 season is hard to come by. In fact it has only ever been achieved once. Also if there is any team that excels at being the party poopers it’s the New York Giants. (Just ask the Patriots!)

By the way they can be backed at 2/1 straight up or with 5 points on the handicap. I don’t expect many to follow this lunacy but don’t be surprised if the Big Blue run them close!

Best of luck