NFL Tips: Week 10

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No luck on the treble last weekend but those backing the preferred double would have been payed out. Carolina were voided having won by exactly 3 while the New Orleans Saints covered easily against the 49ers. This week three picks from the 6pm games and one multiple TD scorer from the late games.

Houston Texans Win @ 11/10 vs Jacksonville Jaguars (NAP – 6pm)

The Jaguars have failed to build on a promising season last year and at 2-6 they sit at the bottom of their division with the playoffs almost certainly out of reach. A big problem has been the regression in their passing game with both Quarterback Blake Bortles and receivers Robinson and Hurns showing major regression from this time last year. The addition of Chris Ivory has boosted the running game and he was showing signs of getting things going during last weeks defeat to the Chiefs. However something just seems amiss with this team all season and they are hard to trust.

The Texans for their part have had their own struggles in the passing game. Brock Osweiler hasn’t exactly lit things up since his big move from the Broncos in free agency after being a big part of their SuperBowl winning season. Star receiver DeAndre Hopkins has just three touchdowns through the first half of the season after going for 11 in total during the last. Many have laid the blame for this on Osweiler but its important to remember that he achieved what he did last year with a poor Quarterback at the helm also. I get the feeling that ‘Nuke’ is going to breakout during the second half of the year and put up some major numbers. He should be helped by the return of first round pick wideout Will fuller who has been back practising since Wednesday.

 

 

 

 

The layers have made the Jacksonville three-point favourites in this one which seems odd to me considering it is normal to allow 3 points for home field advantage. Basically they are saying that at a neutral venue these two sides are equally matched. To me they are clearly the better side in this one and their pass defence which is number one in the NFL should give struggling Blake Bortles fits. While all of their 5 win this year have come at home I think this is the day they get their first road win so i’m going to forego those 3 points on the handicap and back them at odds against to get the win straight up.

Atlanta Falcons Win @ 21/20 vs Philadelphia Eagles (6pm)

The Falcons Vs the Eagles, the battle of the birds is one where the handicapper has failed to separate the two teams. This should be a great matchup of offense against defence. After a fantastic 3-0 start to the season things have started to unravel a little for the Eagles who now sit with a 4-4 record. At home though this defence has been dominant with a perfect record through the first half of the season. This included absolutely shutting down another high-powered offence in that of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The leagues number one offense should be a different proposition. Quarterback Matt Ryan is having the season of his career having only thrown for 4 interceptions and leading the league in passing yards. His favourite target Julio Jones has been unplayable and likewise leads all of the NFL in receiving yards. They also have a balanced attack with a great running game led by Devonta Freeman. This team will put up points on anybody so its going to be a question of whether or not the Eagle will be able to keep up?

My feeling is they will not. The Eagles attacking strength relies on their ability to run the ball but this Atlanta has been great this season at stopping the run. After a blemish free start to the season for Philadelphia QB Carson Wentz the turnovers have started to come having thrown 5 interceptions since those first 3 games. If he’s inaccurate here the Falcons have the cornerbacks to take advantage and i don’t think he can live with Matt Ryan if this becomes a shootout.

Green Bay Packers -2 @ 10/11 vs Tennessee Titans (6pm)

The Packers have been a hard team to have confidence in from a betting perspective throughout the 2016 season. They have been ravaged by injury at both running Back and Defence and have turned in a number of inept performances. Again here they will face another tough task coming up against a Titans team who similar to themselves are struggling but not out of playoff contention.

Tenessee will be led by running back DeMarco Murray who been mightily impressive so far this season and 2nd year quarterback Marcus Mariota who similarly is coming good after a slow start to the season. Like the Packers they have had success on offense but can’t seem to stop other teams from scoring.

For all their woes Green Bay have been good defending against the run and finally are showing signs of improvement in their secondary. It really seems that this week is make or break for their season and Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has pretty much came out and said so. He is still one of the elite signal callers in the league and as much better weapons at his disposal than Mariota does. This is very much a gut call but I want to be on the team in this that desperately needs the win and i think Rodgers and co. Find a way to get it done here.

The treble here works out at better than 7/1 and the preferred double is that of the Texans and Falcons. Another single I like this week is Arizona Cardinals running back David Johnson to score 2 TDs or more @ 13/5. He’s been held out of the endzone for his last two games but scored multiple TDs in both games before that including 2 against todays opponents the 49ers back in week 5. Last week both Saints running backs Ingram and Hightower ran all over San Francisco and both managed a TD so Johnson really should have a field day in this one. Adding this to the treble brings it up to a very tasty 29/1!

Best of luck

Cathal