As we enter November it’s time to take a quick look back at how things have gone for us over the first couple of months of the NFL season. September saw a strike rate of 75% with 6 handicap tips out of 8 landing. The last week of the month saw a perfect 4/4 and 12/1 and 23/1 accumulators winning.
October saw a drop off to a 58% winning percentage with 7 tips landed from 12. A lot lower than I would have liked for the month although I consider myself quite unlucky as a couple of the losses came agonisingly close falling a half point short of covering.
During this time I have also been advising a 5 team match betting accumulator. While this bet has only landed once at odds of 3/1, in every other week bar one stakes have been returned as a free bet thanks to Paddy Powers Acca insurance offer.
The last few month has been a busy time for me personally between my day job and travelling so I haven’t been able to scour the various markets as in depth as I would like to. From next week on I hope to diversify the tips to include both points line and player line betting as many of you have been asking about those markets.
Unless stated, games are played on Sunday afternoon UK time.
Green Bay Packers -2.5 @ 10/11 vs Denver Broncos (NAP – 0130 KO, Monday)
Two undefeated records go on the line on Sunday night football as the Packers travel to mile high to face the Denver Broncos. Amazingly this is only the 4th time in the history of the NFL where two such records have met this late in the season.
I could give you a multitude of reasons to back the Broncos in this spot. Their defence has been scarily good all year leading a number of defensive statistical categories, the Packers are can be prone to the occasional iffy performance on the road. Even the fact that the Broncos are underdogs at home makes you want to back them by default! However I just don’t buy into this team this year and I think those whispering that Peyton Mannings time is done could get much louder come Monday morning.
The Packers have been quietly effective all season. Over the course of the season their defence has actually conceded a point less than Denver’s. Despite not having a fully healthy complement of receivers, QB Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 15 touchdowns. Following their week 7 bye both Randall Cobb and James Jones should be fully healthy while potential breakout Davante Adams should also return. Rodgers is every bit the elite Quarterback, something that this Broncos defence have not faced so far this year. If they can generate any sort of running game on Sunday night to buy him some time I’m confident he will lead the Packers to victory by a field goal or more.
Baltimore Ravens -3.5 @ 10/11 vs San Diego Chargers (1800 KO)
From two teams who haven’t been defeated to two teams that can’t find a win. Both the Ravens and the Chargers come into this looking to avoid a forth straight loss. The similarities don’t end there as neither defence has been able to stop anyone this year. As such both have had to rely heavily on their Quarterbacks and this could turn into a real shootout. However with San Diego having to make the trip to the east coast, Baltimore having a strong record in November under Jim Harbaugh and perhaps a slightly less terrible defence I think the Ravens cover this spread.
Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 @ 20/21 vs Cincinnati Bengals (1800 KO)
While the battle of the undefeated Packers and Broncos is being seen as the marquee game of the weekend, to me the most intriguing is the matchup between the also undefeated Cincinnati Bengals and the 4-3 Pittsburgh Steelers. The Bengals have been good to us on the handicap market and nobody has been more impressed with them than me. Despite this I think they are worth opposing this weekend. Quarterback Andy Dalton has a habit of letting down in big games and they don’t get much bigger than a battle against their divisional rivals.
Pittsburgh welcome back their own Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger who missed the last four games with a knee injury. Just how mobile he’ll be remains to be seen but let’s face it he was never that mobile to begin with. Even half fit he is one of the best at the position in the league and will give the Steelers a huge emotional lift. In Bell and Brown they have two of the best offensive playmakers in the league while Martavis Bryant has carried on right where he left off following his suspension. The Steelers need the win here to stay in the race for the AFC North and in front of their Heinz Field crowd I expect them to come through.
Atlanta Falcons -7.5 @ 10/11 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1800 KO)
My least favourite of this weeks picks since the Atlanta offence has stalled a little bit over the last couple of weeks after making such a bright start to the season. 7 and a half points is more than I like to give up but back in front of their home crowd I see this as a good rebound opportunity for them. Tampa are more than capable of putting up points themselves and with Doug Martin and Mike Evans now rolling this could be a high score. Last season Atlanta beat them 56-14 here at the Georgia Dome and I see more of the same. For those who fancy something at a bigger price you can take Atlanta -7.5 and over 48.5 total game points at 9/4.
For the match betting accumulator I have gone with Atlanta, Arizona, Seattle, St Louis and Pittsburgh. These 5 add up to 5/1 and if backed with Paddy Power one losing selection will see stakes returned as a free bet.
That’s all from me for the weekend. Apologies that it is a little shorter this week. Travelling at the moment so working off my phone and with limited wifi but should be all systems go again next week.
Best of luck