With the Premier League spending in the last two windows totalling £1 billion, and the newest TV revenue deals being even more than previously – I believe that the £1b mark may well be passed in just one summer!
There are several key reasons:
- The appointment of many top new managers at clubs who have huge budgets
- Increasing TV money allowing smaller teams to break existing records
- Failure in Europe by most English clubs
- The impact of the Chinese – leading to increased transfer fee’s
- Tottenham & Leicester looking to maintain their Champions League places
With Jurgen Klopp resisting spending in January – this will be his first window, and I think that there will be plenty of outgoings at the club. The likes of Toure, Balotelli, Benteke and even Moreno are likely to be moved on after either very poor performances and generally not being wanted. With his name, a lot will want to join – and he has been promised sizeable funds.
You then have the likes of Pep Guardiola at Man City, and their inability to perform consistently. The likes of Yaya Toure, Wilfried Bony and many more are likely to leave in order to bring in players that fit his style of football. Man Utd have appointed Jose Mourinho, who again is likely to flog a a few from the likes of Young and Fellaini – just two of many that aren’t really Man Utd standard players. He is likely to be given a huge budget!
Chelsea have hired Antonio Conte, and with a huge backlog of young players, as well as an ageing first team – there are a fair few who are likely to leave. These managers have come in from varying leagues and will have an idea of which players they will want – some of which could be competed for by 3-4 top teams. This will only push prices up!
Everton and Watford also have/will have new managers in place – which will again mean a sizeable budget for both.
Smaller Clubs Breaking Records
We seen it in the last season – a team like Newcastle, a relative mid-table club, spending £80m (but still getting relegated). Stoke spent £18m on Imbula, Watford were relatively active and then you have more like Sunderland, Bournemouth and the upcoming Middlesbrough looking to spend some of what they earn securing safety. Leicester, who were considered a small team last season spent sensibly however, and are likely to do the same again – which should be a lesson to those looking to do a Newcastle and blow large amounts on foreign players.
Failure in Europe
Although Man City reached the Semi Final of the Champions League, and Liverpool reached the final of the Europa – English clubs are clearly falling behind the Spanish league over the last 2-3 seasons. Having dominated most of the previous 10 years in Europe, I believe the clubs have become complacent. With Guardiola, Mourinho, Klopp, Conte and Wenger, added to Pochettino – the rivalry should be fierce next season, and with Leicester taking the title this season – it will really have rubbed them up the wrong way.
The Chinese Super League
Chinese teams have become a force in the market, paying a lot of money for some average, older players. Imagine what they are willing to pay for younger stars? Although most will stay in Europe for the prestige of the Champions League – some will be lured away by astronomical wages, some which are wanted by top English teams would want in their squads. This could force the Premier League’s elite to up their wages/bids in order to secure the signings of those tempted by the Chinese leagues.
Leicester & Spurs
These were two surprise packages that fought it out for the 15/16 title – which was widely expected to be between Man City & Chelsea. Spurs fell away towards the end of the season and ended up 3rd – but with the majority of the squad likely to stay together, two or three quality additions to both their and Leicester’s squads would do them the world of good. Both also have Champions League campaigns, so will need more depth in their squads.
A £1 Billion Summer?
I think Liverpool, Man City, Man Utd, Arsenal and Chelsea will all spend in excess of £100m – Arsenal already having spent £33m on Granit Xhaka. Spurs, Leicester, West Ham, Southampton and even Everton will spend £50-75m, and the rest will spend around £30-50m. An average of £50m per team would equal a one billion pound summer – and I believe it will happen quite easily!