Into the 4th round now – and this is where it gets interesting. Most of the players left have played each other a lot, so you can go more off previous games rather than blind. It’s hard enough anyway – a lot of odds on favourites like Nadal and Tsonga have lost in the last couple of rounds to massive outsiders, with Murray now playing Ivo Karlovic – Tsonga’s last opponent and after dropping a set against Seppi, I’m expecting him to drop a set or two against the best server on the circuit.
Anyway – here are my four picks for today:
1. Stan Wawrinka Win 3-0 (Sets) @ Evens vs David Goffin
Wawrinka has only lost 4 times in his last 15 matches on grass-courts since 2013 Wimbledon, and three of those were against Dimitrov, Federer and Anderson. He rarely drops a set, bar those four losses he only dropped a set in one of the other 11 games and he played the likes of Kyrgios. Goffin is a very good player, but he’s at the stage where playing people he mainly losses against. Neither have dropped a set so far, so it should be a good tie, but I believe Wawrinka will win this 3-0
2. Andy Murray-Ivo Karlovic Over 3.5 Sets @ 11/10
Murray has dropped a set to Andreas Seppi when suffering with a back injury, but if that had not happened he’d have won 6-2 6-2 6-2 probably, as when he had treatment he won 6 games in a row to win the 4th set 6-1. This game now is a different kettle of fish. Murray has played Karlovic 5 times since 2008, and dropped a set to him on 3 occasions, and Karlovic is only getting better. This guy has probably the best serve on the circuit, with over 130 aces in his 3 ties so far! I can see several tie breaks, and Karlovic definitely winning one.
3. Victor Troicki-Vasek Pospisil Over 42 Games @ 11/10
Both players have played a minimum of 4 sets so far, with Troicki having 40, 37 and 34 games matches while Pospisil has gone to 5 sets twice – with 50, 57 and 37 game matches. This is one of the earlier games, and I’m expecting at least 4 sets with possibly a couple of tie breaks. These two have not met before, so it’s untested water. Should be interesting!
4. Giles Simon-Tomas Berdych Over 41 Games @ 11/10
In these two’s last 5 meetings, Simon has won 3 – and both have won 1 each in the last two, with 3 sets happening in 3 of the 5 meetings. However, this pretty much could go either way. Simon has had 32 games (3 sets to 0), 34 games (3 sets to 1) and 47 games (3 sets to 2), while Berdych has had 27, 47 and 38 games (3-1 twice and 3-0). A lot of his games have tie breaks – his first round match had three in four sets against Chardy! Berdych’ serve is very targetable for Simon, as he lost it regularly throughout his three games. I’m expecting 4-5 sets and a couple of tie breakers!
As an Accumulator – 18/1 (ish) and my preferred double has to be Murray-Karlovic over 3.5 sets and Simon/Berdych over 41 games – which is 3.4/1
Best of luck