Tennis has been very good for us so far this week. In 8 tips, 5 winners and 2 others were very close. Today it is the semi final stage in the mens section, and there are two very good games on. First up – Djokovic vs Gasquet:
Djokovic vs Gasquet (1300 KO, Centre Court)
Novak Djokovic seems to be the king of winning 6-4 in a set. Against Kohlscreiber and Cilic he simple won all 3 sets in both games 6-4, and in his 15 sets won so far, 8 have been 6-4. Gasquet shall be a tough opponent – having beaten Stan Wawrinka and Grigor Dimitrov. They faced off at the French Open at the start of June and Djokovic won 3-0 easily, however grass is Richard’s preferred surface, so he should fare a lot better. I’m expecting a couple of 6-4’s mixed with a tie break or a 7-5 – but a max of probably 32 games, like in the Murray-Pospisil match the other day.
Most of Djok’s games so far have had between 27 and 30 games, bar the Anderson thriller – all fairly comfortable against some good players in Cilic, Tomic, Neiminen and Kohlschreiber. He has broken his oppositions serve 22 times, so averaging 4.4 breaks per match – and has been broken himself less than 5 times in the first 5 matches, and two of the four occasions were in the first match against Kohlschreiber. Gasquet possesses a back-hand to die for, and a good serve – but should not trouble the master.
Top Tip – Between 29 and 34 Games @ 7/4
Murray vs Federer (1500 KO, Centre Court)
Murray is slight favourite @ 4/5 to win this, but I get the feeling the bookies have been sucked in by the Murray hype. His record against Fed is pretty poor, bar a couple of wins he loses the majority of matches, including all three last year which included a grand slam tournament. Federer has dropped just one set, and one service game all tournament, and has played a better strain of opposition in Groth, Simon, Bautista, Querrey and Dzumhur. Murray may have seemed to have the harder games – even the Karlovic game was rather easy as the Croat only has a big serve – the amount of passing shots Murray but beyond him was unreal – the gangly nature of the 6ft 8 beast made it easier than some predicted.
Others Murray faced were poor – Seppi would have lost in 3 had Murray not got injured. Haase put up little resistance, Kukushkin was okay at best but never troubled the Scot and Pospisil was a good test but never looked like even breaking Murray, let alone winning a set. Murray has made mistakes so far that Federer or Djokovic would punish with ease – the difference between who he has played and Federer himself is huge – It should be a great game, possibly a 5 setter, but my tip is Federer to Win @ Evens
The double pays around 4.5/1 – and to me looks a good bet with a mix of risk and value.
Best of luck