It’s been a quiet week, what with Internationals being on between Friday and Tuesday. Last night started so well, with the domestic accumulator being 4/4 at one point, but three sides blew leads of up to 2 goals, and the odd red card thrown in meant it ended badly.
There is a lot of good value on this weekend – the likes of Bayern, Lazio and Ajax all Evens or above, while Barca and Atletico are around 8/15 against lower sides (Cordoba for At Madrid, who have lost their last 5 games!). In my 10 game preview I have tried to be as sure as humanely possible, with each side having excellent form, with just one in there who are not in good form but are playing another side so bad it’s impossible to ignore. Here are my 10 picks:
1. Bayern @ 6/5 vs Dortmund (Win + Over 2.5 Match Goals @ 9/5) – 1730, Saturday
Bayern are almost unstoppable, only Monchengladbach beating them recently. They have 4 wins from 5 overall, and 4 wins from 5 away from home. Dortmund may well be in good form after their slump – but they have not really faced a team like Bayern, so to me the form is irrelevant. It’s looking likely the ‘Klopp Project’ is set to disband this summer, with Klopp possibly coming to England, as well as the likes of Hummels, while Reus and many others could jump ship. Expecting an easy Bayern win here.
2. PSV @ 11/10 vs FC Twente – 1945, Saturday
PSV are in very good form – 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 games, and 4 wins from their last 5 away games. Twente have only won 1 games in their last 5, while winning 2/5 at home. They even lost 3-1 to Excelsior the other week, who have been god-awful all season.
3. Tondela @ Evens vs Porto B – 1115, Saturday
Tondela are one of those sides that at worst gets a draw. They have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 in their last 5 games, while winning 2/5 at home, drawing the other 3. Porto B have knack of suprising teams, but I do not see it happening away from home. They have a similar overall record to Tondela, but away they have lost 3 out of their last 5, conceding a fair whack. Porto’s main side played last night so it’s unlikely they will have a few of the fringe players they may well have had if Porto played a day after the B side.
4. Lazio @ Evens vs Cagliari (Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 6/4) – 1400, Saturday
Lazio have been in incredible form recently, thanks to that man Felipe Anderson. They have won their last 5 games overall, and won 3/5 away from home. Cagliari are pretty awful, I think they have got rid of yet another manager recently (courtesy of Massimo Cellino) and have lost 4 of their last 5 games, as well as 3/5 at home.
5. Ajax @ 6/5 vs Utrecht (Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 6/4) – 1130, Sunday
Ajax have hit form recently, with a good stretch of games. They have won 4 of their last 5 overall, and 3/5 (1 draw, 1 loss) with plenty of goals. Utrecht have won just 1/5 overall, and 2/5 at home (couple of losses in each). Ajax have a good record against this side, so fully expecting a comfortable win.
6. At Madrid @ 8/15 vs Cordoba (-1 Goal Handicap @ 7/5) – 1700, Saturday
Atletico’s overall form is decent – 2 wins and 3 draws with some tough games in there. Away, pretty poor – a couple of losses to the likes of Celta Vigo. Cordoba however are a different kettle of fish. So poor its unreal. 5 losses in a row (from the form gathered) and 4 losses in 5 at home. Atletico won 2-0 last time, but went easy on them. They got to 2 and played safe with it. -1 a good bet, but could easily be -2 or -3 if the likes of Griezmann, Koke and Mandzukic fire.
7. Viktoria Plzen @ 1/2 vs Banik Ostrava – 1345, Sunday)
Plzen are looking likely to secure the title this season with a 5 point gap to Sparta already. They do not seem to be slipping up at all, while the aforementioned Prague do. They have won 5/5 overall, and 4/5 away from home. Banik have only won 1 game in their last 5, with a couple of draws, while at home they have drawn 3 and lost 2. Should be a simple win here.
8. Chaves @ 8/11 vs Guimaraes B (Win to Nil @ 2/1) – 1600, Saturday
Chaves are amazing at home – 4 wins and a draw in their last 5 games, while overall 1 win and 4 draws (played a lot of away games recently). Guimaraes may have only lost once in their last 5 games – but away from home they have lost 3/5, and looked pretty poor against similar sides to themselves. Can see a low scoring win here.
9. Cadiz @ 8/11 vs El Palo (Win to Nil @ 2/1) – 1700, Sunday)
Cadiz are walking away with one of the four Segunda B leagues. Starting to get a healthy lead with a load of games still to go. They have won 4/5 overall, and 4/5 away from home, with all four wins coming to nil. El Palo are fairly near the bottom, losing 4 of their last 5 games. Very confident on this game.
10. Barcelona @ 1/2 vs Celta Vigo (-1 Goal Handicap @ 6/5) – 2000, Sunday
This is Luis Enrique’s old club, and he seems to have taught them well. They are a very dangerous team, with plenty of talent. Barca will have way too much firepower for Vigo, and personally I’m expecting Barca to stick 3 past them, with Messi returning from injury, where he missed both Argentina’s wins.
Tips will be coming up very shortly – both mine and Jamie’s. James White should be posting his Horse Racing tip’s for today – so for now, best of luck, and let’s hope for better luck than previous weekends!