A good looking weekend ahead, with limited value on match result markets but very good value elsewhere. I have found particularly good value on Cards this weekend, and also my fourfold BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals acca, which will be posted tomorrow morning. Anyway – here are my 10 tips which we will be included on Saturday and Sunday:
1. Sunderland Over 2.5 Cards @ 1/1 vs Aston Villa (Premier League, 1500 KO)
Sunderland are a very poor team when it comes to discipline. So far this season they have had 10 cards, 2 vs Norwich and 4 vs Swansea and Leicester. They have a lot of poor quality players like Lee Cattermole, John O’Shea and Wes Brown who are prone to getting cards. In the two games last season, Sunderland received 4 and 1 cards respectively, with the four coming away from home, where they are playing tomorrow. In the last 5 meets, they have had over 2.5 cards on 3 occasions. This could well be my NAP for tomorrow!
2. Watford Over 2.5 Cards @ 6/5 vs Man City (Premier League, 1500 KO)
Watford are likely to be chasing shadows for 90 minutes tomorrow, and with a lot of foreign players who go down easy, they are going to get a few cards. With such quick, skillfull players there could be a few late tackles made by the Watford players – and for that reason I believe they could pick up at least 3 cards.
3. Liverpool Over 1.5 Cards @ 5/4 vs West Ham (Premier League, 1500 KO)
Liverpool have had 2 or more cards in 4 of their last 5 home games! They have also had four in each of the Stoke and Arsenal games – and against West Ham I feel they might pick up three or four again as they have a few players who go down very easily and could be booked for simulation, as well as clumsy, aggressive players like Martin Skrtel, while Lucas Leiva also gets a few cards for his tackling. They have not had many cards in previous matches with West Ham, but I feel it could be a niggly game as West Ham are starting to pick up quite a few cards and there could be some retaliation from some of the South American’s who have that sort of reputation.
4. QPR Win @ 9/5 vs Huddersfield (Championship, 1500 KO)
QPR have started well, with 2 wins from four, while Huddersfield have not had such a good start. With Chazza Austin leading the line, and a lot of the dross that got them relegated now gone – I think they will do well this season and should beat a Huddersfield side that are well fancied for relegation.
5. Burnley Draw No Bet @ 11/10 vs Bristol City (Championship, 1500 KO)
This should be good! Joey Barton returns to club football, while a striker Bristol have tried to sign but were rejected (Andre Gray) joined Burnley instead! Burnley have won 1 and drawn 2, while City have won just one but lost two. With Burnley having the vastly superior squad, I feel this offers both good value and a little safety.
1. CSKA Moscow Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 11/10 vs Kuban (Russian Premier League, 1800 KO)
CSKA have won 6/6 so far this season, and scored 2 or more on four occasions. Kuban have really struggled – drawing 3 and losing 2. They lost 3-0 last weekend to a very poor Krylia Samara side. Bar a 1-0 loss in May, CSKA have won the previous 4 meetings, winning 6-0, 4-0, 1-0 and 1-0. Fancy them to win and win well!
2. Norwich +2 Corners @ 21/20 vs Southampton (Premier League, 1330 KO)
Norwich have had plenty of corners so far, having quite an attacking side. They beat Stoke by 9 corners to 2, and tied with Sunderland 6-6. They narrowly lost 4-1 to Palace. Southampton have not won a game on corners, tying with Everton and Newcastle and losing 5-3 to Watford. A 2 corner head start should be enough to see Norwich win in this market in my opinion.
3. Steaua Bucharest Win + Over 2.5 Goals @ 6/4 vs Viitorul Constanta (1900 KO)
Steaua have drawn 4/4 home games so far, and with European football out of the way they can now concentrate on the league – which I think has been part of the problem. Against Viitorul, they have won the last four meetings 4-0, 1-0, 3-0, 4-1. They seem to have a good record, and this could play a part.
4. Cracovia Win @ 6/4 vs Gornik Zabre (Polish Ekstraklasa, 1430 KO)
Cracovia have won 3 of their 6 games so far this season and sit 2nd behind Piast in the table. Gornik have failed to win so far, losing 4 of their 6 games. Interestingly, Cracovia have won their three away games, but have failed to win at home. This is fantastic value!
5. Atletico Madrid Over 3.5 Cards @ ?/? or -1 Card Handicap @ ?/? vs Sevilla (La Liga, 1930 KO)
In the last 5 games between the two, there have been 41 cards issued by referee’s. Of those 41, 23 have been for Atletico. Simeone seems to have installed a tactic of “just bring them down ASAP”. It’s a feisty fixture, with a likely red card. No prices are available yet, but Bet365 have told us that they will have them up nearer to KO.
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Good luck for the weekend – all prices are from Bet365.