Last two weekends have been contrasting. 9/10 one week, 2/10 the next – just shows how a few shocks can really upset the applecart. This weekend we are mainly in England, with 7 of our 10 picks being in those leagues, just 3 elsewhere:
1. Roma Win @ 8/11 (-1 Goal @ 15/8) vs Verona
Roma have drawn 4 games in their last 5 overall, but away form is very good. They have won 4 and drawn 2 away from home. Verona on the other hand have Won 2, Lost 4 at home, and are in pretty poor form. In the 3 meetings between these two (recently, before that it was 2001) Roma have won all 3, and all 3 by -1 goal.
2. Numancia Win @ 5/6 (Win + BTTS @ 7/2) vs Albacete
Numancia are a favourite pick of mine – usually do me proud. Score a lot of goals, but also let in a few. Drew 6-6 the other week. Form wise, at home they have drawn 3 and won 3 of their last 6. Albacete have lost 4 of their last 6 away, and looking back further lose most away games badly.
3. Zurich Win @ 7/5 (Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 5/4) vs Grasshoppers
Grasshoppers are in awful form, but mix wins with losses – 3 wins and 3 losses in their last 6 home games. Zurich on the other hand are very good away from home, with 4 wins from 6. Good for a few goals – we like Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 5/4 if you want a little less risk, as we expect a high scoring game.
4. Man Utd Win @ Evens (Win + BTTS @ 3/1) vs Swansea
Man Utd are unbeaten in their last 6 away games (probably more if I looked back further) and often do well against Swansea, who look toothless without Bony. I think Falcao will be dropped, and Herrera will get a start after impressing. If Rooney plays further up, I can see a win, but as usual they will concede.
5. Bournemouth Win @ 5/4 (Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 21/20) vs Brentford
Bournemouth are big value away from home! 5 wins from their last 6 away fixtures – and with Brentford going through an uncertain spell with their manager announced as leaving at the end of the season, and home form that reads W3/L3 in their last 6. I think it will be a close game, but Bournemouth will prevail.
6. Ipswich Win @ Evens (Win + Under 2.5 Goals @ 3/1)
Ipswich are fantastic at home, and Reading are dodgy away from home. Ipswich form reads W4, D1, L1 whereas Reading’s away form reads 2 of each – W2/D2/L2. A solid back four is Ipswich’s starting point – they don’t concede many. Fancy a 1-0 or 2-0 win.
7. Bristol City Win @ Evens (Win + BTTS @ 3/1)
City are in great form – although away from home not so much. Still, 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 6. But, they have a good record against Colchester, who have lost 5/6 at home. Both teams have scored in all of the previous 5 games – so for that reason we like Win + BTTS @3/1.
8. Kidderminster Win @ 21/20 (Over 1.5 Team Goals @ Evens) vs Nuneaton
Nuneaton are one of the worst sides in the Conference, in very poor form. 4 losses in their last 6 home games. Kidderminster on the other hand are in good form. 4 wins from 6 away games, with a very good record against this side.
9. Dover Win @ 6/10 (-1 Goal @ 11/8) vs Southport
Dover are simply unreal at home. 4 wins and 2 draws in their last 6, and have scored 19 in their last 5. All 4 wins they have won by -1 goal at least, if not a lot more. 11/8 is value for that,
10. Gateshead Win @ 5/6 (Win to Nil @ 2/1) vs Dartford
Gateshead are in good form – 3 wins from their last 6 away from home. Dartford, along with Southport and Nuneaton are terrible. 2 Draws and 4 losses in their last 6 home. Gateshead have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between the two, and all four to nil. Fancy a low scoring win. 1-0 or 2-0.
Tips will be up later on this evening.