Nothing on the tennis in the last few days as I was away – but now we are into round 3 the shocks have still not stopped! Rafa Nadal got yet another qualifier that played the game of his life – Dustin Brown (Germany, ranked 105) absolutely nailed him, 3-1 in sets in the end but Nadal never looked like winning – 4 years in a row a much lower ranked player has beaten him early on in the tournament!
With the games starting to become those we see often, they get tighter in terms of competition. There should be a lot of 4/5 set games now, so the order of the day is the “Total Games” market. Here are my four tips for today, and then a bigger correct set prediction:
1. Denis Kudla-Santiago Giraldo Over 41 Games @ 5/4
Kudla has been taken to 5 sets in both his games so far, while Giraldo has had one game 3-0, and then Kei Nishikori retired through injury, so it was a walkover. Giraldo will be fresher, and is the higher ranked player – but that means little. Kudla is the favourite, and I fancy this to go to 4-5 sets, with several tie-breaks and with the 5th set being tie-breakless, it could end up like the last few days with Dolgopolov vs Karlovic (13-11) so I think that over 41 games is safe!
2. Leonardo Mayer-Kevin Anderson Over 44 Games @ 11/10
This is another I fancy to go to 4-5 sets. Anderson has the wood over Mayer in terms of previous meetings, but in this format a lot of players struggle to keep up the right intensity for 3 sets to win 3-0, hence why Anderson has dropped a set in each match so far against weaker opposition. Both are big servers, so I’m expecting 2/3 tie breaks. Even with 4 sets, two tie breaks and all you need is a 6-3/6-4 scoreline to have this as a winner!
3. Marcos Baghdatis-David Goffin Over 40 Games @ 6/5
Baghdatis truly has the wood over Goffin – he really struggles against the Cypriot, who he lost to at the Australian Open in January and another tournament before that. Goffin has not been challenged, with two 3-0 wins, while Baghdatis – who is getting on a little, going to 4 and 5 sets in his respective matches. Both have been taken to tie breaks in their previous games in usually the first set, but still expecting at least 4 sets! Should be a good game!
4. Grigor Dimitrov Win 1st Set + Match @ 11/10 vs Richard Gasquet (NAP)
Dimitrov has beaten Gasquet just over a week ago, with little opposition. This is a tough one to call – 3-0 is a real possibility but like mentioned so many players struggle to keep up the intensity and win 3-0, often losing a set either in the 1st set or 3rd when 2-0 up. Weather it be 3-0 or 3-1, Dimitrov should win.
As an accumulator, this pays 20/1, with my preferred double being Dimitrov + Baghdatis-Goffin Over 40 Games, with that being around 4/1!
My Correct Set Tip (539/1):
Kevin Anderson Win 3-1 (3/1)
Milos Raonic Win 3-2 (5/1)
Grigor Dimitrov Win 3-0 (11/4)
David Goffin Win 3-2 (5/1)
Anderson has won both matches 3-1 so far, and is slight favourite. Raonic has a tough game in Nick Kyrgios, but won at the same stage last year 3-1 and also won 3-0 since at a grand-slam, so has a good record. Dimitrov should be too good for an ageing Gasquet while Goffin has the years on Baghdatis, who will have weary legs after two long games so far.
Best of luck!